Why the Israel-Lebanon Deal May Not Stop Hezbollah's Recovery

An Israeli commentator argues that the ceasefire understandings with Lebanon include important gains for Israel, but also hidden limits that could help Hezbollah rebuild. He says the deal preserves the IDF presence in the security zone with U.S. backing and marks what he calls a historic Lebanese acknowledgment of an Israeli presence, even if temporary, on Lebanese soil.

The article says the agreement, brokered under Secretary of State Rubio, also counters a separate U.S.-Iran deal associated with Vice President Vance. It notes that Iranian leaders have demanded a full Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, and cites the reaction of Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem as proof that both Hezbollah and Iran are worried about the arrangement.

But the writer says the fine print matters more than the public celebration in Jerusalem. According to his reading, the IDF has full freedom of action inside the security zone, but north of it, including most of Lebanon, its operational freedom is not complete. He argues that this leaves space for Iranian money, which he says could soon total tens of billions of dollars and possibly hundreds of billions later, to flow into Hezbollah's rapid rearmament.

He adds that while the text may formally say Iran has no role in Lebanon, in practice it restricts Israeli action across much of the country, including Beirut, the Dahieh district, and Beirut airport. In his view, the airport could again become a major smuggling route for Hezbollah. He concludes that the deal may be the best possible under the current Trump administration, but warns against complacency and urges a sober assessment of both its advantages and its limits.