Israel Fears Hezbollah Will Retain Arms and Undermine Lebanon Agreement

Israeli security officials expressed concern on Wednesday that Hezbollah may maintain its military strength and autonomy across Lebanon even after the implementation of the recently signed memorandum of understanding between Israel and Lebanon. This scenario could place Israel in a difficult position vis-à-vis the United States and the Lebanese government. A senior security source noted that the Lebanese government and army are reluctant to confront Hezbollah due to fears of civil war, hoping instead that political processes and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will manage the situation.

Meanwhile, the IDF is actively enhancing security along the Israel-Lebanon border by improving defenses near border communities, strengthening positions near the Litani River with new outposts, and destroying Hezbollah’s weapons and terror infrastructure in areas under Israeli operational control. Last week, a U.S. delegation visited Israel to discuss the implementation of the agreement before proceeding to Beirut. A significant meeting is scheduled for July 17 in Rome to resolve tactical issues related to the agreement’s execution, followed by a visit from Lebanese President Joseph Aoun to Washington on July 20.

Despite ongoing disagreements, the source estimated that the implementation of the memorandum would begin in about three weeks, involving a gradual Israeli withdrawal from agreed pilot zones in southern Lebanon and deployment of the Lebanese army to clear these areas of terror infrastructure and militants. However, Hezbollah, backed by Iran, continues to oppose the agreement outright and refuses to disarm. The IDF remains skeptical about the Lebanese army’s capability and willingness to disarm Hezbollah, emphasizing that "the test will be in the implementation." Concurrently, the IDF is preparing for a worst-case scenario in which Hezbollah might violate the ceasefire and resume attacks once the agreement’s implementation date is set.