Trump Approves Long-Term Civil Nuclear Deal with Saudi Arabia Without Israel Normalization

Former U.S. President Donald Trump approved a long-term civilian nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia that could significantly alter the Middle East power balance and provide Riyadh with infrastructure advancing its nuclear capabilities. The deal, reported by the Wall Street Journal, is set to last 30 years and is valued at tens of billions of dollars. It grants American companies a leading role in building reactors and nuclear infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, sidelining competitors from China, Russia, and other countries.

Crucially, the agreement allows for the potential future establishment of uranium enrichment facilities on Saudi soil, subject to joint review by Washington and Riyadh. It does not require Saudi Arabia to forgo reprocessing spent nuclear fuel, a process that can separate plutonium, both uranium enrichment and plutonium separation being key steps in producing fissile material for nuclear weapons. Although the deal is civilian and does not authorize Saudi Arabia to develop nuclear arms, the infrastructure could shorten the timeline if Riyadh opts for a military nuclear path.

This agreement diverges from the "gold standard" set by the U.S. in its civilian nuclear deal with the United Arab Emirates, which committed to forgoing uranium enrichment and fuel reprocessing. Saudi Arabia insisted on retaining these options, and the Trump administration appears to have acquiesced. Another concern is the lack of mandatory adoption of the International Atomic Energy Agency's Additional Protocol, which enhances inspection powers, including surprise inspections. Instead, much of the oversight will rely on direct arrangements between Washington and Riyadh.

From Israel's perspective, the deal is particularly troubling because it separates Saudi Arabia's nuclear ambitions from any diplomatic normalization with Israel. Under the Biden administration, Saudi nuclear development was linked to a broader package including a defense pact with the U.S., arms deals, and normalization with Israel. Israel had assumed it would have leverage to block Saudi nuclear progress without normalization. The Trump administration's approach removes this leverage, granting Saudi Arabia recognition of its nuclear aspirations without political concessions to Israel.

Israeli officials view this as a loss of influence in Washington and a weakening of Israel's strategic position. Experts like Dr. Michal Yaari and Prof. Yossi Mann warn that legitimizing Saudi nuclear capabilities without political cost reduces Riyadh's motivation to normalize relations with Israel and positions Saudi Arabia as a future regional power with potential military nuclear capacity. The deal will undergo a 90-day review by the U.S. Congress, where bipartisan opposition may arise over fears of a Middle Eastern nuclear arms race, but overriding a presidential veto would be required to block it.

For Saudi Arabia, the agreement represents a near-perfect achievement: U.S.-backed nuclear development, access to advanced technology, massive investments, and the option to develop sensitive capabilities domestically. For Israel, it is a stark reminder that Saudi Arabia may secure its primary nuclear ambitions without offering normalization in return.