Marine Le Pen Leads French Presidential Race in All Scenarios, Poll Shows

A comprehensive opinion poll conducted in France and published on Thursday night indicates that far-right leader Marine Le Pen is poised to win the 2027 French presidential election under every tested scenario. The poll by Ifop for the leading French daily Le Figaro comes just one day after Le Pen announced her candidacy and filed another appeal against her corruption conviction.

In the first round scenarios, Le Pen leads with 36% of the vote against various centrist candidates. When former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe is the centrist contender, he trails with 19%, followed by far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 15%, Raphaël Glucksmann at 9%, and Bruno Retailleau at 8%. If former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal runs for the center, Le Pen maintains 36%, with Attal and Retailleau receiving 15% and 10%, respectively.

The second round results show an even stronger advantage for Le Pen. Against Philippe, she leads with 54% to 46%, and against Attal, 55% to 45%. The most decisive victory is projected against Mélenchon, where Le Pen would secure 70% of the vote compared to 30% for the far-left leader. These findings are significant given the challenges of France's two-round voting system.

Le Pen’s strong polling comes despite her recent corruption conviction, which she continues to appeal, asserting her intention to run for president. The poll results highlight her dominant position in the race and the potential reshaping of the French political landscape ahead of the 2027 election.