Marine Le Pen Leads French Presidential Race in Every Scenario, Poll Shows

A comprehensive poll published by Le Figaro in collaboration with the research institute Ifop reveals Marine Le Pen's unprecedented lead in the upcoming French presidential election. According to the survey, if the election were held today, Le Pen would secure between 36% and 38% of the vote in the first round, a significant increase from the 23% she received in 2022. This surge places her far ahead of all other candidates.

In a scenario where former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe runs as the centrist candidate, Le Pen leads with 36%, followed by Philippe at 19%, Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 15%, Raphaël Glucksmann at 9%, and Bruno Retailleau at 8%. The poll highlights a deep division that benefits Le Pen, with centrist candidates like Gabriel Attal and Philippe struggling to surpass 20%, and left-wing candidates barely reaching 11%-12%. This fragmentation effectively eliminates the left from advancing to the second round.

Historically, French voters united against Le Pen in the runoff, but the current poll indicates that psychological barriers have broken down. Le Pen surpasses 50% in head-to-head matchups against strong centrist contenders, reflecting voter dissatisfaction with the economy, immigration, and political instability.

The poll also notes that if Le Pen were forced to withdraw, for example due to last-minute legal complications, her political successor Jordan Bardella would maintain nearly identical support and lead the National Rally to similar results.

Regarding her legal situation, the Paris Court of Appeal upheld Le Pen's conviction for misuse of public funds but reduced her disqualification period from 45 to 15 months, with 30 months suspended. Since the original ban began on March 31, 2025, it will expire before the first round of the 2027 presidential election, allowing her to legally run.

These findings underscore Le Pen's dominant position in the French political landscape ahead of the 2027 election, amid ongoing political and legal challenges.