Israeli Pollsters Reveal Opposition Lead and Challenges in Predicting Election Outcomes

As Israel approaches highly consequential elections, pollsters have become key figures in gauging public sentiment. Meno Geva, head of the Midgam Institute, explains that unlike previous elections which showed a near tie between political blocs, current polls indicate a clear advantage for the opposition bloc, which holds between 58 and 60 seats excluding Arab parties, while the coalition bloc ranges from 50 to 52 seats. Geva notes that the coalition bloc today is more ideologically homogeneous, making voter shifts between blocs rare.

Geva and his daughter Adi Geva, Midgam's deputy director, emphasize that their polling model can predict about 97% of undecided voters' choices with high probability, though some may ultimately abstain. The impact of the October 7 events remains significant, with consistent public support for a state inquiry, suggesting voters have not forgotten the incident. Adi Geva adds that voters’ perceptions of the causes behind October 7 influence their voting behavior.

The article contrasts Midgam’s findings with polls from Channel 14, conducted by Shlomo Filber, which show a markedly different picture favoring Netanyahu’s bloc. Political behavior expert Prof. Lior Sheffer points out that Filber’s polls systematically overestimate support for Likud and underestimate other parties, raising questions about methodology and potential manipulation. Filber himself acknowledges reallocating about eight mandates from former right-wing voters to Netanyahu’s bloc.

Veteran pollster Dr. Mina Tzemach, who famously predicted the 1977 political shift, stresses the importance of transparency in polling methods and notes that concerns about democracy and judicial reforms continue to influence voter attitudes over time. The rise of Gadi Eizenkot, perceived as honest and trustworthy, correlates with increased support for his party, surpassing Netanyahu in some polls.

Polls are conducted using a 100,000-person online panel supplemented by phone interviews for populations with low digital literacy, such as Haredim and elderly voters. Despite the current stability in polling data, factors like voter turnout, especially among Israelis abroad, and the margin of error (±4.4%) leave room for uncertainty. The political landscape remains fluid, with the opposition maintaining a lead but the final outcome still uncertain as election day approaches.