Shas Party Faces Existential Crisis After Election Setback

The Shas party, which had hoped for a seventh Knesset seat from soldiers' votes, was left with only six seats after the final tally of double envelopes. Party Chairman Aryeh Deri initially sought to reassure supporters, referencing past elections where these votes boosted the party's numbers. However, the final count not only dashed hopes for a seventh seat but also saw it go to the Likud party. This outcome has fueled deeper concerns about the party's direction and support base.

One contributing factor to Shas's poor performance is cited as the sharp rhetoric from some of its rabbis against IDF enlistment, including Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef's dismissal of draft notices. Deri himself had previously spoken against conscription, even boasting that his grandsons did not enlist. Following the election results, Deri announced he would step down from his Knesset seat but remain party chairman, stating his intention to tour the country and strengthen ties with activists and the public, while continuing to guide the party's legislative work and preserve the Jewish identity of Israel.

Critics, including former Shas MK Rabbi Chaim Amsellem, argue that Deri's move is superficial and will not bring about genuine change. Amsellem contends that Shas has strayed from its original vision, becoming a party that deceives the Sephardic public by focusing on religious rigidity and neglecting education and economic advancement. He criticizes the party's adoption of Ashkenazi Haredi concepts, which alienates traditional, Zionist Sephardic voters, and suggests Shas risks becoming irrelevant like the historical Mafdal party.

The party is facing a potential crisis as younger voters appear to be drifting towards other parties like Likud, Otzma Yehudit, and the Religious Zionism party. This trend could indicate an aging support base and difficulty securing its political future. The low performance in the double envelope count, which includes soldiers and other mobile populations, might suggest a weakening hold on younger demographics, though further analysis is needed to confirm a generational shift in support.

Amsellem further asserts that the narrative of a "conspiracy against Mizrahim" is a flawed attempt to deflect responsibility from the party's leadership. He describes Shas as a long series of deception and misdirection of the Sephardic public, which initially believed in the idea of restoring pride and status. Instead of promoting education and prosperity alongside Torah, he claims Shas has focused on making the public Haredi, detached from secular knowledge, economically dependent, and anti-Zionist, resembling the Lithuanian Haredi sector.

Shas's struggle to appeal to the younger, more traditional, and Zionist generation raises questions about whether it still represents the broader Sephardic public or has become a sectarian Haredi party. If Shas does not re-evaluate its path and its relationship with these demographics, the lost seventh seat may signal the beginning of a much deeper crisis.