Ultra-Orthodox Draft Exemption Deal Eyed for Eisenkot Government Support

A proposal is being considered within the change bloc that could alter the coalition formation talks: freezing the enforcement of military conscription and arrests of yeshiva students for up to a year, in exchange for United Torah Judaism's support for a government led by Gadi Eisenkot. This potential arrangement, reported by Amir Ettinger on Ynet, aims to advance the scenario of an Eisenkot-led government that includes the ultra-Orthodox parties, a possibility explored after the elections. Under the proposed framework, the new government would pass a decision to freeze arrests and enforcement for up to a year, during which time parties would attempt to formulate a mutually agreeable conscription law, possibly based on a revised version of a 2018 proposal. However, this plan presents a difficult choice for United Torah Judaism Chairman MK Yaakov Asher, who would need to support or abstain from a no-confidence vote in an Eisenkot government before a law guaranteeing the status of yeshiva students is enacted. The change bloc believes a year without arrests would be a significant achievement for United Torah Judaism, arguing that other options like repeat elections or a unity government without them are less favorable. The ultra-Orthodox party recognizes the risks, as a government decision to freeze arrests might not withstand legal challenges at the High Court of Justice (Bagatz). While the change bloc points to a 2023 government decision to refrain from enforcement as a precedent, Bagatz previously ruled that such broad abstentions require a proper legal framework. Efforts to pass a separate law to freeze arrests have also faced obstacles, with a similar attempt in the previous Knesset being disqualified due to procedural flaws and discrimination against yeshiva students. The IDF has also previously opposed removing the option to arrest draft dodgers from the general population. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Netanyahu is reportedly trying to persuade Asher not to join the change bloc, warning that if the ultra-Orthodox demands are not met, they might not be able to bring down a future government. Netanyahu's concern is that an Eisenkot government could potentially survive with the support of Arab parties even if United Torah Judaism withdraws. A significant hurdle may also come from Avigdor Lieberman, whose stance on the ultra-Orthodox and Arab parties complicates Eisenkot's government formation efforts. While Lieberman has dropped his opposition to talks with the ultra-Orthodox and invited Asher to negotiate, he continues to oppose a government reliant on Ra'am. The change bloc estimates that Shas would likely remain outside such a coalition, meaning that even with United Torah Judaism's support, Eisenkot's government might require Ra'am's abstention, forcing Lieberman to reconcile his opposition to relying on Arab parties with his goal of ending Netanyahu's tenure.