Pollster Assesses Lieberman's Path to Prime Minister Amidst Haredi Support

Pollster Shlomo Filber suggested that Avigdor Lieberman could potentially become the next Prime Minister with the support of Haredi parties, but cautioned that significant obstacles remain. Among these challenges are achieving consensus within the Haredi parties, securing legal backing for a conscription arrangement, and the stances of Gadi Eisenkot and Naftali Bennett.

Filber identified David Shapira, a follower of Rabbi Landau, and representatives from the Gur Hasidic dynasty as leading the Haredi efforts, though he anticipates further negotiations will be needed to gain broader Haredi support. He noted that while Lieberman may have forgiven the Haredim, internal rivalries persist, making it a long road to secure unified backing.

The proposal currently on the table, according to Filber, is a temporary order for about a year and a half, during which Haredi men would neither be drafted nor arrested. This arrangement aims to freeze the current situation without a conscription law, quotas, exemptions, or sanctions. Filber also raised questions about the future beyond this period, noting that rabbis are concerned about subsequent steps and the potential advancement of religious affairs legislation, a concern shared by Yair Golan and Naama Lazimi.

Filber believes the proposal would require a "bank guarantee" from legal advisors, including the Attorney General, Deputy Attorney General Avital Sompolinsky, and Miri Frankel-Shoor, legal advisor to the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee. He also referenced Deputy Supreme Court President Noam Sohlberg and Justice Yael Willner in the context of rulings on sanction enforcement.

Even if Lieberman overcomes Haredi and legal hurdles, Filber estimates that Eisenkot and Bennett would find it difficult to accept him as Prime Minister, as each likely sees themselves as more suitable for the role. Filber also proposed that Eisenkot might reconsider his options and explore a unity government with the Likud instead of serving as Defense Minister under Lieberman. He predicted that the Likud and right-wing parties would oppose such a government from the opposition, and also pointed to the possibility of Arab parties remaining outside any agreement. Filber concluded that "there are just over 30 days left to close all of this."