Ex-Mossad Chief Proposes Blocking Strait of Hormuz to Pressure Iran

Former Mossad chief Dadi Barnea has warned that Iran is attempting to revive its nuclear program, asserting that the current Iranian regime will not abandon its pursuit of nuclear weapons as long as it remains in power. Speaking at a conference in New York, Barnea outlined three potential strategies for dealing with Iran: a new nuclear deal, military action, or economic strangulation through sanctions and a complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. He suggested the latter as an alternative to a large-scale war, which, while potentially hastening the regime's downfall, could severely disrupt the global economy and energy markets.

Barnea believes Iran views its nuclear program as crucial for regime survival, not just international standing. He stated that Tehran continues to rebuild its nuclear capabilities, seeing it as the only reliable defense against external pressure and potential collapse. This assessment comes amid uncertainty about Iran's nuclear infrastructure, following strikes by Israel and the U.S. in 2025 and 2026, which have limited the IAEA's ability to fully inspect facilities and monitor enriched uranium stockpiles. However, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi noted on November 10 that the agency had not found evidence of attempts to repair damaged nuclear facilities, though inspectors lack full access to assess uranium reserves and affected sites.

On November 11, Iranian official Mohsen Rezaei stated that Iran would not allow any enriched uranium to be exported and intended to use it domestically, including for nuclear-powered vessels. Barnea sharply criticized the idea of a new nuclear deal, viewing it as a reward for Iran's confrontational policies and unlikely to be honored. He argued that any agreement would merely provide the regime with a reprieve, allowing it to rebuild strength without abandoning its long-term nuclear ambitions. Barnea's proposal for a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, combined with sanctions, aims to cut off Iran's oil export revenue, potentially leading to financial collapse. The Strait is vital for global energy trade, with approximately 25% of global crude oil and 19% of LNG passing through it in 2025, according to the U.S. Congressional Research Service.

Barnea also discussed military operations as a faster route to regime change but warned of severe global economic consequences, including potential energy market shocks and inflation, similar to disruptions seen in 2026. He praised former U.S. President Donald Trump for his strategic thinking and willingness to make unpopular decisions. Barnea also highlighted recent Israeli operations, including the September 2024 pager incident that disrupted Hezbollah's command and the elimination of Hassan Nasrallah, stating that Israel is now significantly stronger and has opportunities to define its future strategy.