S&P Raises Israel Growth Forecast Amid War, Cites NVIDIA Impact
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S&P has raised Israel's economic growth forecast to 5.5% for this year and 7% for next, citing NVIDIA's impact. The agency noted high security risks and potential conflict with Iran, but expects limited infrastructure damage. Political uncertainty from recent elections could influence diplomacy, though security views are similar across blocs. High defense spending will continue to pressure the budget.
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- S&P raised Israel's economic growth forecast to 5.5% for 2023 and 7% for 2024.
- The agency attributes the growth forecast primarily to NVIDIA's activities in Israel.
- S&P acknowledged high security risks, including potential direct confrontation with Iran.
- The agency expects regional uncertainty and conflict to persist potentially until 2027.
- Recent election results could impact Israel's diplomatic approach, according to S&P.
- High defense spending is expected to continue straining Israel's state budget.
The rating agency S&P has issued a special review of Israel's economy, projecting a significant increase in economic growth despite ongoing security challenges. The agency forecasts growth at 5.5% for the current year and 7% for the next, largely attributing this upward revision to the influence of NVIDIA's operations within Israel. The review acknowledges persistent high security risks, including the possibility of renewed direct confrontation between Israel and Iran, and anticipates continued regional uncertainty extending potentially to 2027. S&P assumes that, similar to past escalations, any future conflict with Iran would result in limited damage to Israeli infrastructure. The agency notes that risks to Israel's credit rating stem from potential deterioration in economic and budget indicators due to military escalation. A positive outlook for the rating would depend on economic and fiscal performance exceeding expectations or a reduction in geopolitical risks. S&P also considered the recent Israeli election results, where no bloc secured a Knesset majority, suggesting that a government change could alter Israel's diplomatic approach. Experts believe an opposition-led government might prioritize state institutions, be more open to diplomatic initiatives, and focus more on alliances. However, S&P observes that both major political factions maintain similar security stances. The agency predicts sustained high economic growth but anticipates continued pressure on the state budget due to substantial defense expenditures.