איזנקוט מסתכן בכישלון פומבי: בנט וליברמן עשויים לקבל החלטה חריגה ברגע האמת בכנסת

Gadi Eisenkot faces a potential public failure in his attempt to form a government, as Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman may make an unusual decision at the last minute in the Knesset. Eisenkot has received 67 recommendations, but this does not guarantee a government. The Haredi party, United Torah Judaism, with its seven mandates, has abstained from recommending any candidate, a move that does not necessarily signal a shift in allegiance. While this abstention means Netanyahu can no longer present the old bloc as united, it presents an opportunity for Eisenkot to break the traditional camp divisions. However, 67 recommendations do not translate to 67 votes for a government; 19 of the recommenders are members of Arab parties, leaving the "change bloc" with only 48 mandates. Eisenkot now needs to find the votes to form a government.

Adding to the difficulty is that even among those who recommended Eisenkot, some might benefit politically from his failure. Bennett and Lieberman, by recommending Eisenkot without prior conditions, could claim they gave him a full opportunity if he fails, thus avoiding blame. His failure could strengthen their positions as potential candidates to lead a subsequent attempt to form a government, even though the mandate would not automatically transfer to either of them. They might allow Eisenkot to grapple with internal bloc contradictions first, avoiding an immediate struggle for the mandate. However, this waiting game cannot last indefinitely, and they will eventually need to decide on compromises to replace Netanyahu. Lieberman has indicated willingness to compromise on the conscription issue, but the extent of his flexibility remains unclear. If they reject any plan Eisenkot proposes, they will struggle to explain their initial support to their voters. Conversely, agreeing to compromises that contradict their commitments could lead to a loss of voter trust.