US Midterms Shift Political Pendulum, Impacting Israel Relations
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The US midterm elections signaled a shift away from Donald Trump's policies, with Democrats gaining House control and some far-left candidates winning office. Legal expert Michael Thaidigsmann noted that anti-Israel sentiment is growing in the US, partly due to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's past actions. While US aid to Israel may be reduced, its military independence is increasing. The election outcome could also deter immediate conflict with Iran, though future US-Israel relations may depend on Netanyahu's political future.
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- US midterm elections signal a shift away from Donald Trump's policies, with Democrats gaining House control.
- Far-left candidates with extreme stances on Israel, like Abdul El-Sayed, were elected in the US midterms.
- Bipartisan consensus on Israel has eroded in the US, with anti-Israel sentiment becoming more common.
- US aid to Israel may be reduced, but the country's military independence is increasing.
- The election results could deter immediate military escalation with Iran, according to an expert.
- Future US-Israel relations may be influenced by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political standing.
The recent US midterm elections, which saw Democrats gain control of the House of Representatives and Republicans retain the Senate, represent a significant shift away from Donald Trump's policies, according to legal expert Michael Thaidigsmann. He noted that while a "blue wave" of Democratic victories was anticipated, the results also included the election of some socialist and far-left candidates whose stances, particularly on Israel, are considered extreme. Thaidigsmann highlighted the election of Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, who has questioned Israel's right to exist and criticized US aid as funding "apartheid or genocide." However, he clarified that such views are not mainstream and that El-Sayed's candidacy was also affected by unfair attacks based on his Muslim faith.
The political landscape regarding Israel has changed, with bipartisan consensus eroding. Thaidigsmann stated that it is now common in America to be critical of Israel or indifferent to its concerns, a shift he partly attributes to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's 2015 speech to Congress, which aligned him with the Republican right. This has contributed to a growing alienation of some Democrats from Israel.
Regarding US-Israel relations, Thaidigsmann anticipates a potential reduction in US aid, citing Trump's prior announcement of a $4 billion cut. However, he believes this will not critically impact Israel's military capabilities, as the country is less dependent on US funding than in the past. He expressed greater concern about potential diplomatic crises, drawing a parallel to the 1973 Yom Kippur War when US military aid was delayed.
Thaidigsmann suggested that Trump's electoral setback might deter immediate military escalation with Iran, as a majority of Americans do not desire renewed conflict. While Trump himself is unpredictable, he believes the Republican party's support for Israel remains solid. The future relationship, however, will also depend on whether Netanyahu's government continues in power, as his departure could alter American public sentiment towards Israel.
Looking ahead to the 2020 presidential election, Thaidigsmann is uncertain about the Democrats' ability to win if they nominate candidates with more radical platforms, like El-Sayed or Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. He suggested Republicans might capitalize on this by nominating a more moderate candidate. He observed that many Jewish voters felt compelled to vote despite reservations about certain candidates, indicating a complex electoral calculus driven by dissatisfaction with the status quo and specific policy concerns.
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