Israeli Psychologists Identify Stress Trajectories Predicting PTSD Risk
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Hebrew University of Jerusalem psychologists studied 1,035 Israelis for six months after the October 7 attacks, identifying four stress patterns. They found that the trajectory of psychological state, not just initial stress levels, predicts PTSD. Resilience was more common in men, older adults, and those who felt the world was safe. The study suggests repeated mental health assessments are crucial for identifying those needing intervention.
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- Israeli psychologists found stress trajectory, not single measurement, predicts PTSD development.
- The study tracked 1,035 Israelis for six months after the October 7 Hamas attack.
- Four stress patterns were identified: resilience, recovery, chronic distress, and late-onset stress.
- Resilience was more common in men, older adults, and those who felt the world was safe.
- Wartime volunteering and social support did not guarantee better outcomes, study found.
- Researchers recommend repeated mental health assessments after mass trauma.
Researchers at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem have identified specific patterns of stress that predict the development of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) following severe trauma. Their study, published in Clinical Psychological Science, tracked 1,035 Israeli adults for six months after the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023. The scientists measured participants' psychological states at three intervals: two weeks, seven weeks, and six months post-attack.
The study revealed four distinct stress trajectories. A resilience group (54%) maintained low stress levels throughout. Another group (27%) experienced severe stress initially but recovered over time. A chronic distress group (18%) showed persistent, unalleviated stress, while a late-onset stress group (2.5%) saw their stress intensify after several months.
A key finding is that the trajectory of psychological state, rather than a single stress measurement, is a better predictor of PTSD symptoms. Even when considering a person's state after six months, the path they took to reach that state is significant. The researchers noted that men, older individuals, and those who perceived the world as safe before the war, and who volunteered regularly, were more likely to exhibit resilience.
Chronic distress was linked to experiencing more traumatic events and high emotional empathy. Surprisingly, social support and wartime volunteering did not guarantee better outcomes, suggesting that pre-existing coping mechanisms might be more protective than crisis-specific behaviors. "A key conclusion of our work is that severe stress at an early stage does not necessarily mean long-term psychological problems. Many of those who initially had a very difficult time recovered over time. But a single assessment does not allow us to identify everyone who will need help. Only by tracking the dynamics of symptoms can we distinguish natural recovery from conditions requiring intervention," stated psychologist Dana Katsoti, a co-author of the study.
The authors advocate for repeated mental health assessments after mass trauma, rather than relying solely on early screening, to better identify individuals needing support.
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