Trump's Fuel Price Promise Undermined by Rising Costs Ahead of Midterms

President Donald Trump's campaign pledge to slash energy prices by half and bring gasoline below $2 per gallon within a year of taking office is starkly contrasted by current market realities. Just days before the midterm elections, gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel prices have surged, significantly impacting households, farmers, and airlines across the United States. According to CNBC, gasoline and diesel prices are expected to reach record highs for a midterm election day.

Trump had declared in September 2024, "My plan will cut energy prices in half, even more, within 12 months of my taking office," promising gasoline under $2 per gallon. However, the average price for a gallon of gasoline on Friday stood at $4.20, a nearly 40% increase from the previous year. Diesel prices have jumped approximately 70% to $6.32 per gallon, affecting transportation, industry, and agriculture. For comparison, gasoline prices during the 2022 midterms were $3.80 per gallon.

Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, stated that Trump bears significant responsibility for the current situation, noting that prices are unusually high for this time of year. The surge in fuel costs began following a joint US-Israel attack on Iran on February 28, which led to Tehran retaliating with attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global oil supplies.

At a rally in Michigan, Trump described the price increases as a "small price to pay" to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers asserted that fuel prices would fall dramatically once the conflict ends and Iran is denied a nuclear weapon. The White House also pointed out that, adjusted for inflation, gasoline prices were higher in previous election periods.

Despite some recovery in oil exports, energy supply disruptions persist due to Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries. The war in Ukraine, which Trump vowed to end quickly, remains unresolved. Diesel prices, crucial for economic growth, have seen the most severe increase, impacting transportation and production costs. ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods highlighted diesel as a key pressure point, noting the company's high profits amidst these disruptions. Airlines are also affected by rising jet fuel costs, leading to increased ticket prices and complicating inflation control efforts.

The price hikes have become a political issue, particularly in states like Iowa, a key agricultural region where Trump had strong support. High diesel prices are burdening farmers, intensifying a Senate race previously considered safe for Republicans. Trump considered an embargo on diesel exports but withdrew the idea due to fears of further gasoline price hikes. Instead, he signed an executive order allowing on-road diesel for off-road use and announced an $8 billion aid package for affected farmers. A controversial deal was also reached with Russia for Moscow to export millions of barrels of diesel, drawing criticism from Ukraine and some Republicans.

Energy analysts believe Russia's contribution is minor relative to global demand. Crude oil prices have also climbed ahead of the elections, with Brent crude up over 13% and WTI up about 15% in October, as markets price in potential renewed conflict after the vote. Further escalation could drive prices up before Thanksgiving, a peak travel period for Americans.