Netanyahu Bloc Lost Seats, But Direct Switch to Opposition is Minimal
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Political commentator Amit Segal claims the Netanyahu bloc's loss of 11 seats since 2022 is not mainly due to voters switching to the opposition. Segal's analysis suggests factors like votes for non-qualifying parties and increased Arab turnout account for most of the shift. He also criticized Naftali Bennett's campaign strategy for failing to attract significant right-wing defectors. The opposition bloc, despite gains, still lacks a majority to form a government.
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- Amit Segal's analysis suggests Netanyahu's bloc lost fewer voters directly to the opposition than election results indicate.
- Netanyahu's bloc dropped from 64 seats in 2022 to 53 seats in the latest election count.
- Increased Arab voter turnout and centrist/left-wing support account for about four opposition seats, per Segal.
- Votes for parties failing to pass the threshold reduced Netanyahu's bloc's effective strength by 1 to 1.5 seats.
- Naftali Bennett's campaign shifted from appealing to right-wing voters to competing for centrist/left-wing votes.
- The opposition bloc, despite gains, still lacks an independent majority to form a government.
Political commentator Amit Segal has presented an analysis suggesting that the perceived loss of seats by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc is not primarily due to a direct transfer of right-wing voters to the opposition. While Netanyahu's bloc has seen a decrease from 64 seats in the 2022 elections to 53 seats in the latest count, Segal argues that the actual shift of voters is far smaller than these numbers suggest.
Segal's calculation begins by adjusting the 2022 results, estimating Netanyahu's bloc had an effective strength of around 60 seats, not 64, due to votes for parties that did not pass the electoral threshold, such as Meretz and Balad. He then factors in the current election's increased Arab voter turnout and stronger support for centrist and left-wing parties, which he estimates accounts for about four seats, reducing Netanyahu's relative strength to approximately 56 seats. Additionally, Segal notes that votes for parties like Ofer Vinter's Am Israel party, which failed to pass the threshold, further reduced the bloc's effective strength by an estimated one to 1.5 seats, bringing it to around 54.5, close to the current 53 seats.
This analysis implies that the significant drop in seat numbers does not reflect a large-scale defection of voters from Netanyahu's camp to the opposition. Segal also criticized Naftali Bennett, who initially positioned himself as a potential alternative for undecided right-wing voters. According to Segal, Bennett's campaign shifted focus towards centrist and left-wing voters, especially after Gadi Eisenkot entered the race, and his subsequent alignment with Yair Lapid further distanced him from his initial right-wing appeal.
Despite the opposition bloc's gains, including the rise of Yisrael Beiteinu and increased support for Arab parties, they still lack an independent majority to form a government. Segal's analysis indicates that while Bennett and Eisenkot successfully consolidated anti-Netanyahu sentiment, attracting voters from the right proved much more challenging than anticipated.
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