Israel's Next Government: Unity, Minority, or New Elections?

Following the closing of polling stations and the initial release of election results, Israeli political leaders are entering the next phase of forming a government. Despite exit polls not indicating a clear 61-seat majority for either major bloc, options for establishing a government remain. These include a unity government, comprising lists from both major blocs, or a minority government, which lacks a majority coalition but can be formed with external support. Historically, unity governments, such as the 1984 Peres-Shamir government and the 2020 Netanyahu-Gantz government, have been formed. However, these can face challenges when parties have pledged not to sit with rivals or when making controversial decisions.

A minority government, though legally permissible, relies on the support of parties not officially in the coalition. The article cites Yitzhak Rabin's 1992 government, which initially included Shas, Meretz, and the Labor party, and later continued with external support from Hadash and Maki after Shas's withdrawal. Such governments face the constant challenge of securing support for crucial votes, like the budget, with failure potentially leading to the Knesset's dissolution.

The process for forming a government begins with the President, Yitzhak Herzog, consulting with all elected factions. Based on these consultations, the President assigns the task of forming a government to the Knesset member deemed most likely to succeed, within seven days of the election results being published. The law does not mandate this role be given to the leader of the largest party.

The designated Knesset member then has 28 days to form a government, with a possible 14-day extension from the President. During this period, coalition negotiations take place to agree on policy guidelines and the distribution of ministerial portfolios. If the nominee fails to form a government, the President can assign the task to another Knesset member for another 28-day period without extension. Alternatively, the President can inform the Knesset Speaker that government formation appears impossible.

If a second attempt fails, or if a majority of Knesset members propose a different candidate within 21 days, that individual gets 14 days to form a government. Should all these attempts fail, or if no alternative candidate is proposed, the Knesset is considered to have decided to dissolve itself, triggering new elections within 90 days. Even after a coalition agreement is reached, the proposed government must present its policy, composition, and ministerial appointments to the Knesset for a vote of confidence before it can officially take office. Until then, the outgoing government continues to serve.