Netanyahu Seeks to Block Arab Party Support for Rivals

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is determined to remain in power despite his bloc falling short of the 61-seat majority needed to form a government. The Likud party's strategy focuses on preventing the formation of an alternative government reliant on Arab parties, while simultaneously exploring the possibility of bringing a "change bloc" party into Netanyahu's coalition. If these efforts fail, new elections remain a possibility.

This strategy hinges on the difficulty of Netanyahu's rivals reaching consensus among themselves. Analyst Amit Segal suggested on Channel 12 that Netanyahu might prefer to wait until a leader from the "change bloc" agrees to negotiate with him, with Daphna Liel speculating that Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman would be primary targets. Partial results, with 85.6% of votes counted, show Netanyahu's bloc with 53 seats, the "change bloc" with 48, and Arab parties with 19, falling short of a majority for any side.

The significant increase in support for Arab parties, with the Joint List and Ra'am together securing 19 seats compared to 10 in the previous election, could be decisive. A record 77.7% voter turnout, the highest since 1999, contributed to this shift, particularly high participation in the Arab community. Netanyahu has publicly opposed forming a government supported by "anti-Zionist Arab parties," urging instead for a strong right-wing, nationalist government.

Netanyahu aims to leverage this stance against Bennett and Lieberman, who have expressed opposition to such a government, unlike the Democratic Party which has indicated openness to cooperation. If Bennett and Lieberman maintain their opposition, it would be difficult for Gadi Eisenkot to assemble a majority to replace Netanyahu. Even external support from Arab parties might not resolve the core issue of forming a coalition and agreeing on a prime minister and policy.

Netanyahu may also attempt to fracture the "change bloc" by offering a leadership position to one of its parties. The inclusion of Yamina (12 seats) or Yisrael Beiteinu (7 seats) could provide Netanyahu with a majority, assuming his current partners remain. However, Bennett has explicitly stated he will not serve under Netanyahu, and Lieberman is also firmly opposed. Eisenkot has also pledged not to serve under Netanyahu, even in a rotation agreement.

Further complicating coalition talks are the demands of Shas and United Torah Judaism regarding yeshiva students' status, which conflict with the differing stances on conscription presented by Bennett, Lieberman, and Eisenkot during the campaign. The debate over forming a government with Arab parties has already sparked sharp exchanges, with Amit Segal criticizing potential cooperation with the Joint List. If no "change bloc" leader agrees to join Netanyahu and no alternative government is formed, Israel could face another election. In such a scenario, Netanyahu's caretaker government would continue to serve while his rivals would need to secure a Knesset majority to replace him. The final distribution of seats may still be affected by the counting of double envelopes, including soldiers' votes.