Israeli Election Bets Plunge $70 Million as Netanyahu Overtakes Eisenkot

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The Israeli election betting market on Polymarket saw a dramatic overnight reversal, with over $70 million wagered. Initially favoring Gadi Eisenkot to become prime minister, the market shifted heavily towards Benjamin Netanyahu after exit polls showed strong Likud performance. While the market accurately predicted high voter turnout and political deadlock, it failed to foresee the Likud's strength. Netanyahu now leads betting odds for forming a government, but coalition negotiations are expected to be lengthy.

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Over $70 million was wagered on Israeli election outcomes on the Polymarket platform.
Gadi Eisenkot was initially favored to be prime minister, but Benjamin Netanyahu surged ahead after exit polls.
The betting market accurately predicted high voter turnout and a potential political deadlock.
Netanyahu now leads betting odds for receiving the mandate to form a government.
The market saw a significant shift overnight, with fortunes reversing for key candidates.

Israeli Election Bets Plunge $70 Million as Netanyahu Overtakes Eisenkot — איור מערכת שנוצר על ידי baba News, לא צילום של האירוע.

The Israeli political betting market on the Polymarket platform experienced a dramatic overnight shift, with fortunes reversing for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot, chairman of the 'Yashr!' party. The market, which saw over $70 million wagered, had heavily favored Eisenkot to become the next prime minister and 'Yashr!' to be the largest party in the Knesset.

Leading up to election day, Polymarket gave Eisenkot a 56% chance of becoming prime minister, compared to Netanyahu's 27.5%. Similarly, 'Yashr!' was predicted to win 73.5% of bets as the largest party, while the Likud received only 26%. Many gamblers also bet on the Likud suffering a significant blow, with a large portion expecting the party to win fewer than 24 seats, and some even fewer than 20.

However, the release of television exit polls on election night caused a complete reversal. The polls indicated that the Likud would perform much better than anticipated, securing around 27 seats, and propelling Netanyahu into the lead. By morning, the odds had flipped: Netanyahu was given a 59% chance of receiving the mandate to form a government and a 48% chance of remaining prime minister, while Eisenkot's chances dropped to 41% and 33.5% respectively.

The total trading volume on Polymarket surged past $73 million overnight. A specific contract on Netanyahu becoming prime minister attracted $23.1 million in investments. Other sub-bets included $125 million on the date of Netanyahu's potential departure from office and $14 million on which party would be the largest.

Despite the market's failure to accurately predict the largest party or the Likud's strength, it correctly anticipated a high voter turnout of 77.7%, the highest since 1999. It also accurately foresaw a political deadlock, with a low probability of any coalition quickly forming a stable majority, suggesting a high chance of a "stuck parliament" and repeat elections. The market will close once a prime minister is officially sworn in, and despite Netanyahu's current lead in betting, the complex coalition negotiations ahead mean his actual chance of forming a government remains uncertain.