נתניהו כבר מתכונן לבחירות הבאות? הנאום שחשף הכול | אנה ברסקי

Following the recent elections, Benjamin Netanyahu emerged strengthened but without a clear majority to form a government, leaving the political deadlock unresolved and the possibility of further elections looming. While initial projections favored the 'Change Bloc,' later updates bolstered Netanyahu's position, diminishing the chances of a minority government led by Gadi Eisenkot. According to a Channel 12 poll, Netanyahu's bloc secured 52 seats, the Change Bloc 49, and Arab parties 19. Channel 14's poll showed 62 seats for Netanyahu's bloc, but other polls did not indicate a similar majority.

Netanyahu's position within Likud and the right-wing bloc remains strong, but a clear path to forming a coalition is absent, a situation mirrored by Eisenkot. Netanyahu's call for the "Zionist majority to come to its senses and unite" was vague, lacking specifics on who should unite around whom or under what conditions. He did not extend an offer of partnership to Eisenkot, Bennett, or Lieberman, leaving the prospect of a unity government ambiguous and without a clear political price.

The central theme of Netanyahu's speech was the confrontation with Iran, an area he aims to leverage to solidify his image as a security leader, a message that could serve him in future elections. Forming a unity government faces significant hurdles, as Eisenkot has pledged not to sit in a Netanyahu-led government and Bennett and Lieberman have also promised not to join him. For a unity government to materialize, key players would need to retract public commitments and agree on the prime minister and rotation.

Alternative paths to government formation are also narrow. Netanyahu could attempt to sway defectors from the Change Bloc, but most polls suggest he needs a substantial number of MKs to switch sides. Eisenkot needs to present a viable coalition, but a minority government relying on Arab parties requires the consent of his partners, particularly Lieberman, who has opposed relying on Ra'am. While Lieberman called for Likud members to rebel against Netanyahu, even a few defecting MKs might not resolve the numerical deficit.

In the current scenario, Netanyahu holds a significant advantage. If no candidate can form a government, he might continue as caretaker prime minister until new elections. Eisenkot would need to demonstrate an ability to unite parties with conflicting approaches, while Netanyahu could continue to govern from the position of prime minister. However, even a caretaker government doesn't guarantee control over Knesset proceedings. If opponents manage to form a parliamentary majority, they might attempt to replace the Knesset Speaker and advance a state inquiry into the October 7th massacre.

It is premature to declare new elections imminent. Final results and the counting of double envelopes could alter the seat distribution. While the right-wing bloc anticipates gaining one or two seats, Eisenkot might benefit more from these additions. These changes could influence the balance of power and recommendation chances with President Isaac Herzog, but may not resolve the government formation issue. Herzog could attempt to mediate a compromise, but lacks the power to force agreement among unwilling leaders. Netanyahu could have used his speech to present a clear unity government offer and shift responsibility to his rivals if they refused, but he chose not to, possibly saving this move for consultations with the president or deeming it futile at this stage.