How Israel's Election Results Are Counted and Government Formed

Following the closure of 12,018 polling stations across Israel, a large-scale logistical operation has commenced to count votes and determine parliamentary seats. The process involves manual counting at each polling station by committee members, with votes read aloud and recorded by representatives from different factions. Ballot boxes are sealed, and materials are transferred to regional election committees for final protocol approval before results are sent to the Central Elections Committee in the Knesset. Measures to prevent fraud include observers from all parties at each station and approximately 15,000 cameras monitoring the process. Election integrity supervisors will document the count and report in real-time. A special operation to examine results from thousands of selected polling stations will take place in the Knesset from the day after the election until Thursday evening, involving protocol checks and, in a small number of cases, re-counting.

Initial interim results are expected to be posted online overnight, with frequent updates as data is processed. National turnout percentages will be released every two hours between 11:00 and 23:00 starting the next day. The Knesset's control center will broadcast the counting process live until Thursday evening, when final results are anticipated. Legally, the Central Elections Committee has eight days to publish official results, by Wednesday, November 4th. The 26th Knesset is scheduled to be sworn in on Tuesday, November 10th.

Final results are delayed primarily due to the handling of "double envelopes" containing ballots from individuals who could not vote at their designated polling stations. This includes soldiers, police, hospital patients, prisoners, and those using special accessible polling stations. Over 460,000 Israelis used this method in 2022, and an estimated 600,000-650,000 are expected to do so this year, a significant increase attributed to reservists and evacuees voting away from home. These ballots, along with those from Israeli diplomatic missions abroad, are sent to the Knesset. Voters' eligibility is verified, and double voting is prevented before the inner ballots are separated and mixed to ensure secrecy. Votes from approximately 100 polling stations at Israeli embassies worldwide, which concluded earlier, will also be counted.

Calculating parliamentary seats involves several steps: verifying valid votes, identifying parties that pass the 3.25% electoral threshold, summing their votes, and dividing by 120 seats to determine the value of a mandate. Remaining seats are distributed using surplus vote agreements between parties and a formula called the "mandate measurer." The value of a mandate depends on the overall voter turnout, with estimates suggesting around 36,000 votes per mandate in 2022. Projections indicate that with 70% turnout, a party would need approximately 165,635 votes to pass the threshold, with variations based on turnout levels.