Arab Parties Achieve Historic Gains in Israeli Elections

Exit polls for Israel's 26th Knesset elections indicate a significant surge for Arab parties, projecting them to win between 17 and 18 mandates, a substantial increase from the 10 mandates they held in the previous Knesset. According to a Channel 12 poll, the Joint List is expected to secure 11 mandates, with Ra'am, led by Mansour Abbas, winning an additional seven, totaling 18 seats. Other polls from Kan 11, Channel 13, and i24NEWS show similar results, with a combined 17 or 16 mandates for the parties. This projected increase follows a notable rise in voter turnout among the Arab and Druze populations, particularly in the Negev region, surpassing the 53.2% turnout recorded in the 2022 elections. The electoral landscape was also shaped by the parties' alliances; in 2022, they ran separately, with Ra'am and Hadash-Ta'al each winning five mandates, and Balad failing to cross the electoral threshold. For the current elections, Balad rejoined the Joint List alongside Hadash and Ta'al, while Ra'am ran independently. Throughout election day, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu repeatedly warned of high Arab voter turnout, urging his Likud and right-wing supporters to vote and framing the increased participation as a potential factor in determining the next government. Conversely, Arab parties actively worked to boost turnout, with Mansour Abbas stating his goal was to replace the Netanyahu government and keep the right-wing in opposition for four years. If these projections hold, it would represent the largest electoral achievement for Arab parties to date, surpassing their previous record of 15 mandates in 2020 and 13 in 2015. The increased representation could significantly impact the balance of power in the Knesset, as initial polls suggest no single bloc will achieve an independent majority of 61 seats, potentially giving Arab parties considerable leverage in post-election negotiations. However, these are preliminary exit poll results, and the final vote count, expected overnight, will determine the ultimate success of the Arab parties.