Low Turnout in Haredi Cities Sparks Concern for Ultra-Orthodox Parties

While Arab voter turnout is reported to be exceptionally high, preliminary data from ultra-Orthodox population centers indicates a concerning drop in participation for the current elections. Cities like Bnei Brak, Elad, Beitar Illit, Modi'in Illit, and parts of Jerusalem are showing lower turnout rates compared to previous elections at the same hour.

Leaders within the ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism, are expressing significant worry over these figures. The prevailing assessment is that a deep disappointment with the performance of their Knesset members in the outgoing government is driving the decline. Two main issues are cited: the ongoing controversy surrounding the conscription law, with no resolution for yeshiva students' status and fears of continued arrests for draft evasion, and the perceived failure of their representatives to adequately protect yeshiva students from legal action.

Adding to the concern is the fragmentation of the ultra-Orthodox vote. The emergence of new parties, representing various factions within the community and offering alternatives to the established parties, is siphoning off votes and dividing the electorate. This is particularly worrying given the overall high national turnout, which, if not matched by the ultra-Orthodox sector, could diminish their relative political power.

Nationally, voter turnout by 2 PM reached 44.9%, the highest for that hour since 1973. In contrast, the ultra-Orthodox parties are seeing a dip. The demographic disparity, with the ultra-Orthodox comprising about 10.5% of eligible voters and the Arab population around 18%, further amplifies concerns that a strong Arab turnout coupled with lower ultra-Orthodox participation could significantly impact the distribution of Knesset seats. The final results will determine if these fears materialize.