Rahat Sees High Voter Turnout Amidst National Election

In Rahat, Israel's largest Bedouin city, voter turnout for the 26th Knesset elections reached 36.9% by Tuesday afternoon, significantly higher than the 18% recorded in Umm al-Fahm. This disparity highlights variations in participation within the Arab community and suggests it's too early to determine a broader trend. The increased engagement in Rahat is partly attributed to the mayor, Talal Al-Kara'naawi, who set an ambitious goal of 75% turnout and urged residents, particularly women, to vote. Al-Kara'naawi stated that the actions of National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir have motivated voters, who he believes want to demonstrate their political influence.

In the previous election in November 2022, Rahat's turnout was 60.61%, compared to the national average of 70.63%. Ra'am was the dominant party in Rahat then, securing 64.16% of the votes. This year, Rahat aims for a substantially higher participation rate.

The overall turnout within the Arab community is considered a crucial factor in determining the composition of the next Knesset. Pollsters had predicted a 60% to 70% turnout, driven by a desire for government change, concerns over rising crime and violence, and the aim to strengthen Arab representation. Pollster Yosef Makladeh estimated Arab voter turnout could reach 68%-69%, a notable increase from the approximately 53% in 2022. Such a scenario could lead to the Joint List and Ra'am collectively winning 15-16 seats, an increase from the ten seats they secured in the prior election.

The merger of Hadash, Ta'al, and Balad into a single list for this election, unlike Balad's separate run in 2022 where it failed to pass the electoral threshold, is expected to impact results. Ra'am, led by Mansour Abbas, is running independently. A significant boost for these Arab parties could alter the seat distribution between political blocs, potentially complicating efforts for both Benjamin Netanyahu to form a 61-seat majority and Gadi Eisenkot to form a government without Arab party support. The final outcome depends not only on Arab voter turnout but also on the results of other parties.