Voter Turnout Gaps Could Swing Election by Up to Five Seats

Professor Asher Cohen of Bar-Ilan University has identified a persistent gap in voter turnout between strongholds of the left and the Likud party, which he believes could determine the election outcome. He estimates that a turnout difference of seven to eight percentage points could translate into three to five parliamentary seats.

Cohen explained in an interview with Arutz 7 that historically, left-wing strongholds consistently show higher voter participation than areas loyal to the Likud, with the gap sometimes approaching ten percentage points. He stressed that this comparison is between areas identified with political camps, not a blanket statement about all left or right voters. However, he noted significant exceptions, stating that "religious-nationalist and Haredi polling stations have very high voter turnout. The highest in the country."

He pointed to the 2022 elections as a key example, where efforts were made to narrow the turnout gap in Likud strongholds. While participation in these areas did not surpass that of left-wing strongholds, the difference significantly decreased from eight to nine percent to around three percent. Cohen stated, "The gap narrowed, and that was enough to win."

Cohen attributes these turnout disparities to broader socio-economic factors seen in Western democracies, where higher education and socio-economic status often correlate with increased political participation. In Israel, this pattern is reflected in the differences between areas aligned with different political camps, though he also cited varying levels of interest and engagement in politics.

He also addressed the concept of the "apolitical person," noting that those deeply involved in politics may overestimate the general public's engagement. Cohen clarified that official turnout figures are based on the voter registry, which includes individuals no longer residing in Israel. He estimates that actual turnout among eligible voters living in Israel is closer to 80%, but a significant portion still abstains. He believes the greatest potential for influencing election results lies in mobilizing these less engaged voters, rather than in trying to significantly increase turnout in already high-participation areas.

Cohen concluded that the battle for voter turnout is not a minor technical issue but a crucial factor in election results. The key question, he stated, is whether the historical gap between left and Likud strongholds will persist or narrow, as it did in 2022, potentially shifting the balance of power.