Netanyahu Escalates Fear-Mongering Tactics Ahead of Israeli Elections

With the Israeli Knesset elections just 36 hours away, competing parties are intensifying their final efforts to sway voters. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's campaign strategy, according to Israeli Channel 12 analyses, heavily relies on invoking the Iranian threat and leveraging his relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump for additional support statements. He is also reportedly raising claims of potential election fraud within the Arab community to mobilize his base.

Israeli analysts suggest Netanyahu is prioritizing security concerns, particularly the Iranian threat, over promises of stability and recovery. Political analyst Yair Charaki noted Netanyahu's unconventional tactic of posting an imagined nuclear cloud over Tel Aviv, questioning the effectiveness of this fear-based rhetoric. Charaki believes Netanyahu is offering fear as an alternative to hope, but doubts the strategy's precise calculation and its ability to provide a clear post-election vision.

Analyst Ben Caspit echoed that Netanyahu's campaign is fundamentally based on fear, interpreting the repeated requests for Trump's support as a sign of lacking alternative messages. Caspit criticized the fluctuating use of the Iranian threat, pointing out Netanyahu previously declared the threat removed, only to re-emphasize it as election day nears.

Conversely, analyst Amit Segal sees the Iranian threat as a significant electoral asset for Netanyahu. Segal suggested that focusing solely on this issue would have given the Prime Minister an advantage, prompting rivals to concentrate on other matters like Haredi conscription and the events of October 7th.

In the final hours, Netanyahu is reportedly seeking further public support from Trump and aiming to energize his base by alleging potential fraud in the Arab community. Analyst Dafna Liel indicated that voice messages circulating on WhatsApp and right-wing media platforms suggest a high turnout among Arab voters. These messages, she explained, are intended to motivate right-wing and Likud voters without broad public dissemination to avoid increasing Arab voter participation, which could impact the "change bloc's" ability to form a government.

Meanwhile, the "change bloc" faces internal tensions as parties vie for the largest faction status and leadership clarity in a potential government. Liel highlighted that Gadi Eisenkot is pushing his party to be the largest, causing friction, while Naftali Bennett focuses on Haredi conscription and attracting young voters. Avigdor Lieberman is campaigning on the end of Netanyahu's era and Haredi conscription to persuade voters of a possible government change. Charaki warned these internal disputes could drain the bloc's energy in the crucial final campaign phase.

Regarding seat distribution, Charaki cautioned that a projected difference of only six seats for Netanyahu's bloc might underestimate the shift in power, potentially significantly impacting the parliamentary landscape and government formation chances. He added that if neither bloc secures the 61 seats needed for a majority, new alliances or shifts in party stances could emerge. Voter turnout, especially in the Arab community, and the performance of smaller parties remain critical factors influencing seat allocation and post-election negotiations.