Arab Capitals Watch Israeli Elections, Prefer Any Leader Over Netanyahu

The Arab world, encompassing 22 states, the Palestinian Authority, Iran, Turkey, and even Indonesia and Malaysia, is closely observing Israel's election results with curiosity and concern. Representatives from these nations have been reaching out to Israeli commentators, politicians, and business figures to gauge the situation, with many acknowledging that definitive outcomes won't be clear until after voting concludes. Despite the complexity, they are actively analyzing public opinion polls.

Sources indicate a prevailing sentiment across these countries: "Either Netanyahu wins again, or we will face a surprise." A leading Egyptian commentator expressed that "any outcome other than Netanyahu and his bloc would be a pleasant surprise for us." The unresolved Palestinian issue remains a significant concern for Jordan, Egypt, and particularly Saudi Arabia. Jordan's King Abdullah II is reportedly monitoring Israeli discussions about shifting responsibility for the West Bank to his kingdom and is unwilling to pass this burden to his son.

Egypt harbors long-standing grievances with Netanyahu but is also concerned that any successor might not prioritize resolving the Palestinian issue. Cairo believes Israel views the West Bank and Gaza as separate entities and shows no inclination to unify them. However, there's an expectation in Cairo that a new Israeli prime minister would seek to improve relations with President el-Sisi, who is preparing to remain in power until at least 2030 and aims for regional solutions without confronting Israel.

Saudi Arabia, led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, is openly seeking assistance amidst Iranian efforts to destabilize the region. If Netanyahu continues sharing intelligence with Riyadh, the Crown Prince will not object. However, it is assessed that Riyadh is unlikely to join the Abraham Accords if Netanyahu remains in office, though a change in Israeli leadership could alter this, depending on Saudi conditions.

Morocco, despite its distance from regional conflicts, also shows significant interest in the elections. The recent appointment of Fatima al-Mansouri, known for her close ties with Jewish neighbors, as the first female head of government was noted. Relations between Israel and the UAE and Morocco are currently the most favorable.

Regardless of the election outcome, the next Israeli prime minister faces a substantial agenda requiring extensive planning, negotiations, and consultations with Israeli security and intelligence agencies, as well as international counterparts. A recent delegation of eight Israelis, including retired Major General Yaakov (Mendi) Or, visited a private home and heard deeply disturbing accounts that have resonated with international observers, who are anxiously awaiting developments.