Israel's New Government Faces Major Security, Education, and Governance Challenges

As Israel prepares for elections on October 27, the incoming government will confront significant challenges across security, education, and transportation, alongside critical issues in Judea and Samaria. In security, the primary task will be to formulate a new defense doctrine to conclude the ongoing war initiated on October 7, 2023, and prevent future conflicts. This requires a fundamental shift from relying solely on intelligence and deterrence to building a defense system based on readily available forces, high alert, rapid response capabilities, effective intelligence, and a functioning command structure. A state commission of inquiry is deemed necessary to investigate the failures leading to the October 7th attack. Post-war, Israel must ensure terrorist organizations cannot rearm and must rebuild public trust in the security establishment, strengthen border communities, and prepare for multi-front warfare.

The education system presents another major hurdle, with a severe teacher shortage affecting all age groups and regions. Parents are primarily concerned with having a teacher in every classroom, rather than grand reforms. Addressing the shortage requires not only increased salaries but also improved working conditions, such as smaller class sizes. The government must decide how to implement the Shapira Committee's recommendations to reduce class sizes to 20 students, a project estimated to cost 15 billion shekels. The burgeoning ultra-Orthodox education sector, largely unsupervised and not teaching core subjects, poses a demographic challenge, with potential implications for state budgets and oversight.

In Judea and Samaria, the new government must define Israeli sovereignty amidst a growing population. The expansion of settlements and new outposts has altered the reality on the ground, necessitating a clear policy direction: sovereignty, separation, or encouraging emigration. The international community, particularly the US, is increasingly concerned about the situation, including incidents of "Jewish terrorism" and the perceived inability of Israeli authorities to manage the area. The government will also need to address the existential threat posed by a potential future conflict in the narrow coastal plain of Israel.

Another pressing issue is the conscription of ultra-Orthodox men into the IDF. Despite opposition from Haredi leadership, there has been a nearly 50% increase in Haredi enlistment in recent years, partly due to economic and legal sanctions. The government is urged to prioritize enforcing conscription through economic measures, such as denying benefits, which have proven more effective than arrests of draft dodgers. Furthermore, the establishment of metropolitan transportation authorities, a reform stalled due to coalition politics, needs to be revived. This would transfer authority for public transportation planning and management to regional bodies, allowing for services tailored to local needs, provided adequate funding and oversight are ensured.

Regionally, the new government will face complex challenges in managing relations with neighboring countries. The Abraham Accords have been frozen since October 7th, and leaders like Syrian President Ahmed al-Shar'a and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman have expressed concerns about Israeli actions. Regional analysts suggest a need for a change in Israeli policy and approach, emphasizing dialogue and balanced relations to achieve stability. The government must navigate opportunities in Lebanon, Syria, and the Gulf, while confronting the growing Iranian-backed axis and the strengthening Sunni Muslim Brotherhood axis led by Turkey.