Analyst Warns of Turkish Ambitions Toward Jerusalem Amid Regional Tensions

In a Friday morning interview with Channel 14, Middle East analyst Yoni Ben Menachem said the only force capable of toppling Hamas is the IDF, rejecting hopes that an internal civilian uprising would end the group’s rule in Gaza. He argued that Hamas still rules “with an iron fist” and would crush any resistance, adding that more than 90% of Gaza’s population is effectively Hamas-supporting. He said many Gazans may hate Hamas for what it does to them, but “more than anything they hate Israel and Jews.”

Ben Menachem also dismissed reports about progress in Lebanon as “disinformation and fake news.” He said talks in Washington are stalled because of basic disagreements and because the Lebanese side refuses to assume real security responsibility. According to him, the Lebanese army opposes fighting Hezbollah north of the Litani River and is willing to enter only south of the river.

He warned that the US administration could pressure Jerusalem instead. “Trump will not let this memorandum of understanding collapse and will pressure Israel to retreat and compromise, and that is very serious,” he said. He also said Iran is warning that if Israel does not withdraw from southern Lebanon, the agreement will fall apart.

Turning to Turkey, Ben Menachem said developments there are worsening as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seeks to turn Turkey into a regional power that can replace Iran’s influence after the current phase. In his words, “Erdogan has a dream to conquer Jerusalem and enter Al-Aqsa Mosque.” He said Turkey is arming itself with strategic weapons and long-range missiles, and argued that recent diplomatic moves toward Ankara, alongside Foreign Minister Gideon Saar’s proposal to recognize the Armenian genocide, require careful Israeli consideration because of their security implications.