Analysis Claims Netanyahu’s Real Worry Is Political, Not Military

In a June 21, 2026 column, Nir Kipnis argues that Channel 12’s Saturday night program "Meet the Press" often struggles to generate fresh headlines because it is recorded more than 48 hours before broadcast. He uses a discussion on the show, hosted by Ben Caspit with Amit Segal, to examine what he says is the deeper political logic behind Benjamin Netanyahu’s current moves.

Kipnis says Segal backed Israel’s campaign in Lebanon and downplayed criticism that Iran is effectively running the country there. He notes that Segal treated the fighting as serving important goals, including the destruction of tunnels dug deep under the Beaufort area, while host Dana Weiss questioned whether the war was hurting Netanyahu’s election prospects, especially amid a public strain between Netanyahu and Donald Trump.

The column then focuses on Segal’s remark that unnamed "coalition figures" are pressuring Netanyahu to break up the government now, so the coalition can avoid passing legislation that would hurt Likud electorally. Kipnis dismisses that claim as implausible, arguing that the likely pressure points are inside Likud itself and that ministers such as Itamar Ben Gvir, Bezalel Smotrich, Aryeh Deri, and Yitzhak Goldknopf would not all benefit equally from early dissolution.

Kipnis concludes that Netanyahu is probably the one pushing himself toward a government transition, either because polls show damage from advancing judicial and ultra-Orthodox legislation during wartime, or because he wants to move only the media and judicial bills while delaying the ultra-Orthodox measures. He says a caretaker government would limit the budgetary maneuvers that help the Haredi parties, and that this context also explains why Netanyahu wants Trump to think twice before embracing Gadi Eisenkot.