Netanyahu’s Political Survival Is Still in Doubt, and the October Election Could Be Decisive

A Hebrew opinion analysis argues that Benjamin Netanyahu is in a critical but stable political position, and that stability is now a liability. The piece says recent polling shows his bloc stuck around 50 to 52 seats, with no sign it will recover the 12 to 14 mandates it has lost, and no meaningful progress on any front, from Iran to Hezbollah to Gaza. It says there is still no real “total victory” anywhere, while Hamas is rebuilding despite what the article calls the equivalent of 800 aid trucks a day entering Gaza.

The writer says Donald Trump has become a problem for Netanyahu, after remarking that he was not sure Netanyahu would run again. The article describes that comment, and remarks by Vice President J.D. Vance about a possible Iran deal that Israel may or may not like, as a major electoral blow. It argues that Netanyahu may now be considering either a last-minute exit from politics, a plea deal, or some form of pardon, because if he runs, loses, and becomes opposition leader, his bargaining position in the corruption cases will worsen.

The piece also ties Netanyahu’s circle to the alleged leaking of classified intelligence to the German paper Bild. It says the chain ran from reserve soldier Ari Rosenfeld to Eli Feldstein, then to Younatan Urich, and from there to Netanyahu’s orbit, with the publication said to have exposed a sensitive Israeli intelligence asset. The article claims Urich and Netanyahu should have taken responsibility once the military censor blocked publication, but instead shifted blame onto Feldstein, who later began cooperating more openly through lawyer Oded Saborai.

According to the author, the scandal led the military and Shin Bet to trace the leak upward, while Urich allegedly deleted his phone contents after Feldstein’s arrest. The article says Netanyahu continues to stand by Urich and also highlights his coalition’s push for controversial legislation, including a telecom overhaul, changes to the attorney general and internal police watchdog systems, the “Torah study” law, and child allowance legislation. The writer concludes that Netanyahu is still likely to run, but that the possibility of his withdrawal is now real if his polling worsens further.