Outside the Washington Loop and Backed Into a Corner in the Polls, Likud Is Starting to Worry

The pressure in Likud is greater than ever. With the elections about five months away, and according to the polls, even the numbers Netanyahu is getting now, Likud will not form the next government. And there is no major trick on the horizon that could upend the mandate map and return Netanyahu’s bloc to the majority it has today.

Until about a month ago, the big expectation in Likud was the third blow that was supposed to land on Iran. Netanyahu did everything he could to pressure the United States to launch another strike, this time especially hard and deadly. A powerful air assault by the U.S. and Israeli air forces against power stations and infrastructure, one that would hurt especially badly not only the regime but also the Iranian people. This time everything was on the table. No target was immune. A strike that would cut off electricity, אולי even water, in large parts of the vast country and send millions of Iranians into the streets, on the way to toppling the tyrannical, extremist regime. And, as usual, everyone waited for Trump. On Wednesday, three weeks ago, he was close to it, then changed his mind and stopped. Usually after appeals from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, which urged him to try to fully exhaust the diplomatic track.

But Trump is frustrated, the negotiations with Iran are not moving, the Iranians are smug, full of self-confidence, and unwilling to back down. Over the past two nights there have been exchanges of blows between the United States and Iran. Last night the Americans attacked military infrastructure and, according to Trump, used dozens of Tomahawk missiles. The Iranians responded by firing at targets in Kuwait and Bahrain. Trump hopes this small war of attrition will make the Iranians more flexible and pave the way to an agreement that will end the war. But Netanyahu has no doubts, a very hard, third strike is needed to shake the Iranian regime. And there was another advantage to such a strike. Yedioth Ahronoth quoted Likud figures saying, “We need a third strike in Iran, otherwise we will lose the election.”

Netanyahu continued to apply every possible pressure, but this time President Trump was no longer really listening to him the way he had before the start of the previous war, the second Iran war, in February this year. Netanyahu then promised Trump that a combined U.S. and Israeli air force attack would bring down the Iranian regime. Netanyahu’s assessment was that this would happen fairly quickly, within weeks at most. The former Mossad chief, Dadi Barnea, even described in a video call to the president, who was sitting in the White House situation room, how that would happen. It did not happen, on the contrary. The United States got bogged down in the war, Trump is doing everything he can to end it, and he has not forgotten what Netanyahu promised him. “You were too optimistic,” Vice President J.D. Vance told Netanyahu in a tough conversation between the two. Vance, it should be recalled, was one of the fiercest opponents of the war, and מאז then he has not stopped needling Netanyahu.

Therefore, not only was Israel not part of the deliberations over whether to strike or go for an agreement, senior security officials told American media that Israel is completely out of the loop: “We do not know what is happening in the negotiations between the United States and Iran. The Americans are not sharing with us. All we know is from neighboring countries and intelligence sources.” As of today, and it is important to note that this is all true as of today, because this is the capricious Trump, the major strike does not appear to be on the horizon. Trump’s relations with Netanyahu have also deteriorated. And that is a serious problem for Netanyahu, because the close relationship with the American president, the coordination, the frequent calls, the frequent visits to Washington, were Netanyahu’s pride. A strong political card.

Every time he flew to the White House, he would point out that no world leader had visited Trump as often as he had. He would even cite the number of flights before each takeoff to prove how close he was to Trump. And suddenly, a serious cooling. The reports by Barak Ravid, Channel 12’s correspondent in Washington, did considerable damage. Trump’s harsh statements against Netanyahu caused real shock: “You are fucking crazy. Ungrateful. Without me you would be in prison, I saved your ass. Everyone hates you, everyone hates Israel because of what is happening.” And two days ago there was another outburst. Netanyahu told the president that he wanted to expand the strikes in Beirut, Trump demanded that he stop and said, “If you continue like this, you will be left alone against Iran.” A day later Netanyahu already updated the cabinet that there was בהחלט a possibility that Israel would have to attack Iran without American assistance. Madness.

And the day before last night, another development. When asked by an ABC television reporter whether Netanyahu would run in the upcoming election, Trump replied: “I don’t know if Netanyahu wants to continue, I don’t know if he wants to run again.” Boom.

Why boom? First, because the speaker is Trump, he has spent many hours speaking with Netanyahu. Netanyahu has talked to him about the pardon he wants, about President Herzog’s refusal to grant him a pardon. Trump also knows his situation. Be sure that Trump is deeply familiar with Netanyahu’s political standing. They also conduct polls in Israel, and very expensive ones at that. So such a statement is not made casually. About two weeks ago, Avigdor Liberman was interviewed on the program Ophira, Ohana, Seri on Keshet 12. He claimed he had various indications that Netanyahu was considering a plea deal and retiring even before the election: “I will not be surprised if one morning before the elections we hear that Netanyahu has closed a plea deal and is leaving politics.” Liberman has excellent sources, mainly inside Likud, but he is a political rival. Trump is Netanyahu’s patron, the support, the political card he is supposed to have in the upcoming election. Netanyahu has no achievement other than him to bring to the election. And when Trump raises the possibility that Netanyahu will not run, that is more than interesting.

In the meantime, Netanyahu continues to do everything, absolutely everything, for the Haredim. He cannot give them a conscription law, so he gives them everything else in return, just so they will stay calm. A Basic Law on Torah study that equates Torah scholars with IDF servicemen. A disgrace and a scandal, especially after the October 7 massacre and the urgent need for 15,000 soldiers in the IDF. The daycare law, a law to circumvent the evasion law, which is supposed to transfer money to the children of Haredi draft evaders, money that was taken from them because there is no evasion law. The kashrut law for Shas, a jobs law that will provide thousands more jobs for Shas kashrut supervisors and, of course, more budgets. Just ask.

And soon a decision will be made about the primaries. How many reserved slots Netanyahu will get on the list. He wants ten. Will the districts be pushed down to non-realistic places on the list to free up more spots for the 41 ministers and Knesset members who are frightened, many of whom will go home after the primaries? And above all, looming over Likud is the great fear of whether Netanyahu will even run in the upcoming election in October. It is not that they adore him in the Likud faction, but they know he brings the mandates. They are elected to the Knesset on his back. And in the political system, people do not stop talking about the central question: will one morning, 30 or 40 days before the election, we wake up and hear that Netanyahu has quit in exchange for a dream plea deal that would save him from trial?

And if that does not happen, whom will Netanyahu prefer to lead the bloc against him, Bennett or Eisenkot? His close adviser Yonatan Urich has been attacking Eisenkot a lot in recent days, mocking his English and saying he cannot form a government without Ahmed Tibi and Mansour Abbas. By the way, it is the same tired campaign that has been running for years. The attacks on Eisenkot are meant to weaken him, but at the same time they annoy Bennett, who sees that his rival for leadership of the bloc is being treated seriously, meaning he is strong.

The war has calmed down, politics has returned in a big way, and Israelis just want to celebrate and fly abroad after the difficult years they have been through. But there will be no calm, in any case. Find out whom to vote for in the upcoming election. The questionnaire that will help you make sense of it all according to your views.