Voter Turnout, Not Just Swings Between Parties, May Decide Elections

The article argues that Israeli elections are often decided less by voters switching parties and more by whether supporters show up at the polls at all. While campaign coverage focuses on movement between blocs and parties, the author says the decisive factor can be a small shift in turnout, especially in a race that is close to a dead heat.

It notes that turnout in Israel is measured against the full voter registry, which includes hundreds of thousands of people who no longer live in the country. According to Central Bureau of Statistics estimates, that group makes up about 10 to 11 percent of the list, so a reported 70 percent turnout is closer to 80 percent of eligible residents in practice.

Looking at the 2021 election, when the national camp lost, overall turnout fell by roughly 4 percent, from 71.5 percent in 2020 to 67.4 percent in 2021. But the larger story was the sharp decline in turnout inside specific party strongholds. In Joint List strongholds, turnout plunged by almost 22 percent, from 66 percent to 44 percent, after anger over the list’s breakup. In Likud strongholds, turnout fell 4.6 percent, from 66.3 percent to 61.7 percent, and in United Torah Judaism strongholds it slipped 3.2 percent, from 78.9 percent to 75.7 percent.

By contrast, turnout in Blue and White strongholds barely changed, dropping only 1.3 percent, from 72.1 percent to 70.8 percent. In Labor-Meretz strongholds, participation held steady and even rose slightly. The author says this shows voters can punish parties simply by staying home, and that a few percentage points of abstention can decide the election. The right-wing Likud and the ultra-Orthodox parties are singled out as having especially loyal voters, but also voters who have stayed home in past elections.