Polls Show Tight Israeli Election Race, Arab Vote Key to Outcome

Political science lecturer Dr. Salim Breik stated that the upcoming Israeli elections remain highly unpredictable due to the close race between political blocs and the potential impact of voter turnout, particularly within the Arab community. Breik explained in an interview on Radio al-Shams that a significant increase in Arab voter turnout, potentially reaching 65-70%, could cause several parties hovering near the electoral threshold to fall below it, thereby altering the balance of power.

He suggested that higher Arab voter participation might come at the expense of other parties, including the Eizenkot party. Breik emphasized that the electoral landscape is constantly shifting, making definitive predictions impossible before voting trends become clear. He noted that many parties are currently close to the electoral threshold, making their fate dependent on overall turnout and, specifically, Arab turnout.

Breik recalled past instances where parties with strong poll numbers failed to cross the threshold, citing Yamina and Meretz as examples. He highlighted that a higher turnout makes it harder for smaller parties on the edge, and the failure of parties like "Headed Ha'atzmaut" could lead to a redistribution of votes and seats. He pointed out that the Arab community constitutes about 16% of the Israeli electorate, and the difference between Arab and Jewish voter turnout will be crucial in breaking the deadlock between Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc and the opposing camp.

Regarding polls concerning the Arab parties, the Joint List and the United Arab List, Breik advised caution, stressing the importance of understanding the pollster's methodology. While he deemed polls from Channels 12 and 13 more reliable, he urged focusing on trends rather than single-poll results. Breik projected the United Arab List might secure five seats, with potential for growth due to increased voting in the Negev. He also warned that the margin of error in polls, around 3.2-3.5%, can significantly impact seat allocation.

Breik commented on the addition of Sigalovich to the United Arab List, suggesting it hasn't demonstrably boosted support and that his political message might be more significant than any votes gained. He doesn't expect Sigalovich to attract Jewish votes but hopes his presence won't alienate Arab voters, noting his security background and focus on crime could carry a political message beyond seat calculations. Breik believes 13-14 seats for Arab parties is achievable, potentially reaching 15 if they act cohesively, a scenario aided by unified lists preventing vote wastage. He concluded by calling the Likud's perceived shift towards right-wing and "racist" rhetoric, along with calls to disqualify Arab parties, a worrying sign for the Arab community, urging it to increase voter turnout rather than abstain.