Two Key Factors Could Sway Upcoming Israeli Election Results

With 43 days remaining until the election, two critical variables are poised to significantly influence the outcome: the electoral performance of Ofer Winter's party and the voter turnout within the Arab community. Both political camps recognize that even a single Knesset seat could be decisive in forming a government.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a strategic dilemma regarding Winter. He must decide whether to intensify attacks on Winter's nascent party, aiming to push it below the electoral threshold, or to moderate his criticism to avoid alienating potential right-wing voters who might otherwise support his Likud party. Senior Likud figures, including Yoav Kisch and Almog Cohen, have publicly criticized Winter, warning that his party could jeopardize the right-wing bloc by "burning" votes and potentially aligning with other factions in the future. This strategy is reportedly reflected in Netanyahu's decision to sign a surplus vote-sharing agreement with the Religious Zionism party instead of Winter's.

However, Winter presents a different perspective, asserting that his support base comes from "soft right" voters disillusioned with the Likud, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit, but who do not identify with the center-left. If Winter's assessment is accurate, direct attacks from Netanyahu might inadvertently bolster his support. Conversely, if his base is smaller than claimed, his party could fail to cross the electoral threshold, becoming a strategic liability for the entire right-wing bloc.

The second major factor is the anticipated voter turnout in the Arab community. In the previous election, Arab parties collectively secured ten seats. This time, analysts suggest the landscape may shift, partly due to the Balad party not running independently, which could lead to wasted votes that do not pass the electoral threshold. If turnout increases significantly, the two main Arab lists could potentially win between 14 and 15 seats. While this scenario doesn't directly benefit the "change bloc" opposing Netanyahu, it could substantially reduce the number of seats available to Zionist parties, making it harder for Netanyahu's opponents to reach the 61-seat majority needed to form a government.

Ultimately, in a closely contested election where every seat matters, these two seemingly minor factors, a party hovering around the electoral threshold and Arab voter participation, could prove to be the deciding elements in determining who forms the next Israeli government.