Iran's Leadership Divided Amidst Escalating Tensions with US

A senior official involved in US-Iran contacts stated that Iran is "moving away from agreements" and that "there is no one to talk to," following a report in The New York Times detailing internal Iranian divisions. The report revealed that the decision by Iran to attack oil tankers in the Gulf in July, which reignited conflict with the US, was made by the Basij commander without the knowledge of most of Tehran's leadership. Mediating countries are currently discussing a return to negotiations with Iran.

According to five sources familiar with the matter, the July attack on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz was an initiative by a hardline faction within the Iranian leadership. This faction allegedly did not inform President Masoud Pezeshkian, the Revolutionary Guards commander, or the National Security Council, leading to the collapse of an agreement that had been forming with Washington. An investigation by the Iranian government and security forces reportedly identified Hossein Taeb, former head of Revolutionary Guards intelligence and current Basij commander, as the mastermind behind the operation, as he had opposed the agreement from the outset.

President Pezeshkian had reportedly been close to a diplomatic achievement with the US earlier that month. However, during a visit to Iraq, Iranian forces fired on three commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, igniting one tanker and damaging others. Pezeshkian allegedly contacted Revolutionary Guards Commander General Ahmad Vahidi, who denied prior knowledge or approval of the attack, stating the Supreme National Security Council was also unaware. This led to an internal power struggle, with accusations of betrayal and threats of resignation from senior generals.

Hardliners, led by the commander of the Revolutionary Guards' aerospace force, Seyed Majid Mousavi, have reportedly presented a war plan that includes increased attacks by Houthi rebels in Yemen and militias in Iraq against American targets and regional oil facilities. This comes amidst a US naval blockade impacting oil exports, soaring inflation, and a collapsing Rial. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump suggested the conflict might end before or shortly after the upcoming November midterm elections, while also hinting at a continued US presence and potential oil acquisition in the region.

Adding to the internal turmoil is the apparent absence of the new Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, since his appointment in March, fueling rumors about his health and involvement in state affairs. Despite President Pezeshkian's claims of recent meetings, official sources suggest these interactions may have been indirect or staged, raising doubts about the Supreme Leader's capacity and whereabouts.