Alarm Grows That Iran Could Race Toward a Bomb Within Two Months

Israeli security experts quoted in the article say the most urgent danger is not Iran’s rhetoric, but its stockpile of enriched uranium. They argue that, as a 60 day window opens on Friday for a possible nuclear deal between Iran and the United States, Tehran may try to use the absence of full monitoring to sprint toward a weapon. One expert is quoted saying the concern has become “absolute, severe and urgent,” and another says, “The more you know, the less you sleep.”

The article says Iran now holds enriched material sufficient, after further enrichment, for about 12.5 bombs. That includes roughly 11 bombs’ worth of uranium enriched to 60 percent, about 1.5 bombs’ worth at 20 percent, and additional 5 percent material that could yield about seven more bombs over a longer route. The author’s central claim is that 60 percent enrichment is already close to weapons grade and is effectively a loaded gun, especially because the deal appears to leave the fissile material issue unresolved.

Former Israeli National Security Council deputy head Rafi Miron is cited saying Iran’s program advanced on two tracks, the material track and the weaponization track. He says the first priority should have been striking the highly enriched material, not only the visible facilities, because the enriched stock already in Iranian hands is the main threat. The piece also quotes International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi as saying Iran has enough know-how, fissile material and equipment to secretly build a small nuclear facility and produce a bomb there.

The article says monitoring of centrifuge production has been interrupted since February 2021, and that more than 21,000 centrifuges were installed at two monitored sites before the war. It warns that Iran could exploit the 60 day negotiation period to move material, hide assets, and strengthen its position, especially after recent Israeli and American strikes failed to destroy the program or topple the regime. The piece concludes that if the uranium remains under Iranian control and inspections do not fully resume, the point at which Iran can no longer be prevented from getting a bomb may already have begun.