Israeli security and intelligence officials believe Iran will use the 60 days after the expected signing of a memorandum of understanding on Friday to buy time rather than reach a final nuclear agreement with the Trump administration. According to sources familiar with the details, the assessment is that Iran’s supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, does not actually intend to conclude a final deal, and that the talks are meant to ease pressure and secure an economic boost from the United States.
The concern in Israel is that during this period Iran would receive major relief, including on economic sanctions and on oil and fuel trade. Officials warned the political leadership over the past day that the 60-day deadline could easily stretch much longer. One senior security official told Channel 12, “We assess that Iran will drag out the time, and that the 60 days of negotiations will become much more.” He added, “It would be very surprising if Iran does not put all its efforts and tricks into shortening its breakout time to a nuclear weapon, under the cover of the talks.”
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the opposite, stating that negotiations with the United States on the nuclear issue and sanctions relief would begin “already on the day we sign the memorandum of understanding.” Israel is also troubled by the secrecy around the document. Jerusalem asked Washington to see the memorandum and was refused. A senior Israeli official said there is now “a problem of trust,” because Americans fear Israel will brief and leak the text, and that something on the path to signature could be disrupted.
A Wall Street Journal report published Thursday said, echoing Channel 12 reporter Barak Ravid, that the United States will let Iran sell oil and fuel immediately after the memorandum is signed, while both sides pledge to work toward a final agreement. The report said sanctions relief on oil sales would take effect right away and include easing access to banking, transport and insurance services. CNN also reported that U.S. intelligence now assesses Iran can close the Strait of Hormuz at any time it chooses. One source said, “We are essentially the ones who gave Iran control over the strait, it is a more powerful weapon than any nuclear weapon.”
