Israeli intelligence assessments say Iran is likely to use the 60 days after the expected Friday signing of a memorandum of understanding with the Trump administration to drag out negotiations rather than reach a final nuclear deal. Security officials told the political leadership in recent days that Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, probably does not want a conclusive agreement, and that the talks and framework approval are meant to ease pressure over the Strait of Hormuz and deliver an economic boost from the United States.
Israel is especially worried about the period after the signing, when Iran would be expected to receive significant relief on economic sanctions and on oil and fuel trade. A senior security official told Channel 12, “We assess that Iran will drag out the time, and the 60 days of negotiations will become much longer.” The same official said it would be very surprising if Tehran did not use “all efforts and tricks” to shorten its breakout time toward a bomb under cover of the talks, adding, “Do not expect anything else from a revenge-seeking regime.”
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the opposite, stating that talks with the United States on the nuclear issue and sanctions relief would begin “already on the day we sign the memorandum of understanding.” Israeli officials also said the secrecy around the memorandum is fueling distrust. Israel asked Washington to see the text and was refused. One senior Israeli official said there is “a trust problem,” because Americans fear Israel will brief and leak the document, causing the process to collapse.
A Wall Street Journal report, which Israeli reporter Barak Ravid had earlier described on Channel 12, said the United States will let Iran sell oil and fuel immediately after the memorandum is signed, while both sides commit to working toward a final agreement. The report said sanctions relief on oil sales would take effect immediately on Friday and include access to necessary services such as banking, transportation, and insurance. CNN reported, citing U.S. intelligence, that Iran can now shut the Strait of Hormuz whenever it chooses. One source said, “We are essentially the ones who gave Iran control over the strait,” calling it “a more powerful weapon than any nuclear weapon.”
