Iran Threatens Escalation and Nuclear Doctrine Shift in Response to US Sanctions

Iran has vowed a strong response to the latest US sanctions announced by President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, which aim to intensify economic pressure and isolate Tehran by targeting countries trading with Iran. Iranian officials warned of a "seismic" counterattack and refused to back down, signaling potential escalation in the Gulf and beyond.

Among Tehran's possible responses is leveraging its influence over oil prices by threatening to block all oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz and other Persian Gulf routes. Mohsen Rezaei, head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, declared that if the economic war continues, not a single drop of oil would pass through the strait. Analysts suggest Iran could expand attacks on oil tankers using missiles, drones, mines, or commando operations, and coordinate with the Houthi rebels who have imposed a partial blockade at Bab al-Mandeb Strait.

Iran may also renew attacks on Gulf states, particularly Kuwait and Jordan, which had seen a lull in recent weeks. Tehran warned it would retaliate "with earthquake-level force" against any Gulf countries cooperating with US sanctions. There is also a risk of strikes against US military bases and naval vessels enforcing the embargo.

Beyond the Gulf, Iran has threatened to target NATO countries like Bulgaria, where US refueling aircraft are stationed, and has previously attacked British bases in Cyprus. Iranian officials have indicated Europe could face attacks if tensions escalate. Cyberattacks linked to Iran recently targeted a UK power station and US water facilities.

Domestically, Iran is debating withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which it has long claimed to honor for peaceful purposes. The parliament is considering legislation to exit the treaty, with senior officials questioning why Iran should not pursue nuclear weapons amid US hostility.

The US and Gulf states have partially broken Iran's blockade of Hormuz through protected oil convoys and alternative export routes like Saudi pipelines to the Red Sea. However, the new sanctions and Iran's defiant posture suggest a prolonged confrontation with significant regional and global implications.