US Intelligence Warned Trump Killing Khamenei Would Strengthen Hardline Regime in Iran

A detailed investigation by the Wall Street Journal reveals that days before a major strike, US intelligence chiefs explicitly warned President Donald Trump that assassinating Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would not topple the Tehran regime but instead lead to a more extreme and hardline government under Mojtaba Khamenei. Despite these clear warnings about the risks of escalation and depletion of US ammunition stocks, Trump approved the operation.

The report states that on February 28, shortly before the attack, Trump convened a critical meeting with top defense and intelligence officials to assess whether such a massive strike could dismantle Iran's regime and nuclear program. Then-National Intelligence Director Tulsi Gabbard clearly told Trump that killing Khamenei would likely result in an even more rigid leadership committed to acquiring nuclear weapons. Pentagon leaders also cautioned about heavy casualties and ammunition shortages.

Trump, convinced by advisors who believed Iran was historically weakened and reassured by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and military chiefs, dismissed these concerns and ordered the strike. The Wall Street Journal notes that the intelligence predictions largely came true: Khamenei was indeed killed by Israel, an event welcomed by Trump, but the regime did not collapse. Instead, Mojtaba Khamenei succeeded his father, and the Revolutionary Guards tightened their grip on Iran.

The new regime refuses to yield to US pressure and continues hostile actions such as attacking commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, exactly as intelligence officials had warned. This outcome underscores the failure of the strike to achieve its intended strategic goals and highlights the risks ignored by the Trump administration.