Trump Ignored Intelligence Warnings Before Iran War, Leading to Prolonged Conflict

A Wall Street Journal investigation reveals that just days before launching a war against Iran, President Donald Trump received explicit intelligence warnings that killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would not topple the regime but instead empower a more militant leadership committed to accelerating nuclear weapons development. In a critical February 28, 2026 meeting at the White House, then-National Intelligence Director Tulsi Gabbard warned Trump that eliminating Khamenei would likely result in a harder-line government, immediate closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and increased attacks on U.S. forces and bases in the region.

Despite these warnings and Pentagon concerns about casualties and ammunition depletion, Trump proceeded with a military campaign initially planned to last six weeks. Iranian officials had repeatedly threatened to close the strategic Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for any direct attack, a move that would disrupt about 20% of global oil and gas trade and spike fuel prices. Experts also cautioned that a broad military strike would push Tehran to rapidly develop nuclear weapons as a "last resort" insurance policy.

The conflict has since dragged on for six months, with Khamenei killed by Israel shortly after hostilities began, an event Trump celebrated at Mar-a-Lago. However, the regime did not collapse; Khamenei's son, Mojtaba, assumed leadership, and the Revolutionary Guards strengthened their hold, continuing attacks on commercial vessels in the strait. The U.S. has suffered 18 soldier deaths, 756 injuries, damage to bases, and depletion of weapons and oil reserves, while Iran has lost approximately 3,000 personnel. Multiple ceasefire agreements have failed, forcing Trump to abandon military plans in favor of sanctions and a naval blockade aimed at economically pressuring the regime into submission.