US Intelligence Warned Trump Against Killing Iran’s Khamenei Before 2023 Conflict

New details have emerged about the intense debates within the US leadership prior to the 2023 military campaign against Iran, revealing sharp disagreements before President Donald Trump decided to proceed. According to an extensive Wall Street Journal investigation, the US intelligence community warned that assassinating Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei could backfire, potentially strengthening hardline elements rather than weakening the regime.

Days before the February 28 offensive, Trump convened top security and intelligence officials in the White House’s Oval Office to discuss whether a broad strike targeting Iran’s leadership would collapse the regime and halt its nuclear program. Then-National Intelligence Director Tulsi Gabbard presented intelligence assessments cautioning that killing Khamenei would not guarantee a more moderate government. Instead, it could empower a tougher leadership that would prioritize acquiring nuclear weapons even more urgently.

The intelligence outlined possible scenarios including Iran blocking the strategic Strait of Hormuz, escalating attacks on US forces and bases in the region, and accelerating its nuclear weapons efforts. Pentagon officials also warned of the high costs of a prolonged conflict, including American casualties and significant ammunition depletion. Despite these warnings, Trump was persuaded to move forward, influenced by assessments that Iran was unusually vulnerable and by operational plans presented by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and military leaders.

Shortly after the war began, Israel assassinated Khamenei, but the Iranian regime did not collapse as some in Washington had hoped. His son, Mojtaba Khamenei, assumed leadership roles, and the Revolutionary Guards strengthened their influence. Fighting around the Strait of Hormuz continued, turning what was expected to be a short conflict into a prolonged and costly engagement. Six months into the war, US casualties totaled 18 dead and 756 wounded, with damage to bases and depletion of ammunition and oil reserves. Iranian casualties were reported at approximately 3,000 dead.