Killing of Ali Khamenei Marks Military Success but Raises Strategic Concerns for Israel and US

The assassination of Ali Khamenei represents a significant military achievement, yet it poses serious long-term strategic challenges for Israel and the United States. According to Professor Amatzia Baram, while the operation was a tactical victory, it risks undermining broader strategic interests if the entire Iranian regime is not simultaneously dismantled. Baram warns that eliminating Khamenei without ensuring the collapse of the regime could backfire, as the Iranian Revolutionary Guards will likely seek revenge for failing to protect their supreme leader, damaging their honor.

This retaliation threat complicates efforts to prevent the Revolutionary Guards from accelerating their nuclear weapons program. The professor highlights that the current situation is precarious, with the possibility of losing the larger conflict despite winning this particular battle. However, he notes that a potential misstep by Iran's new leadership, which is already emerging, might still turn the tide in favor of Israel and the US.

The article underscores the delicate balance between military actions and their strategic consequences in the ongoing conflict with Iran, emphasizing the need for comprehensive plans beyond targeted assassinations to secure lasting success.