Winter’s Party Splits Right-Wing Bloc, Reducing Its Knesset Seats to 49

A new poll conducted by Midgam for Channel 12 News reveals that if Ofir Winter's party runs independently in the upcoming Israeli elections, it would weaken the right-wing bloc significantly. In this scenario, Winter's party surpasses the electoral threshold, but the Religious Zionist Party fails to do so, causing the right-wing bloc to shrink to a historic low of 49 Knesset seats.

According to the poll, Winter's party would secure 4 seats, while the "Yashar!" party would gain 24 seats, Likud 21, "Together" 16, the Democrats 11, Yisrael Beiteinu 9, United Torah Judaism 8, Shas 7, the Joint List 7, and Ra'am 4. Parties falling below the threshold include the Zionist Home-Militarists (2.8%), Religious Zionist Party (2.4%), Gilad Erdan's party (0.8%), and Blue and White (0.4%).

If the elections were held today with the current party lineup, the poll shows the Eisenkot party leading with 24 seats, Likud with 22, and the "Together" party of Bennett and Lapid with 15. The Democrats would have 11 seats, Yisrael Beiteinu 9, Otzma Yehudit 9, United Torah Judaism 8, Shas 7, the Joint List 7, Religious Zionist Party 4, and Ra'am 4. In this scenario, the right-wing bloc would hold 50 seats, compared to 59 seats for the anti-Netanyahu bloc.

The poll highlights the potential fragmentation within the right-wing camp and the impact of Winter's independent run on the bloc's overall strength in the Knesset.