Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar Party Leads Likud as Ofer Winter Enters Politics, Dethroning Smotrich

A new Channel 12 poll conducted by Meno Geva's Midgam Consulting among 502 respondents with a 4.4% margin of error reveals significant shifts in Israel's political landscape if elections were held today. Gadi Eisenkot's party, Yashar, would lead with 24 Knesset seats, surpassing Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud, which would receive 22 seats. This is the first poll following the Likud primaries, the Joint List's unification, and the announcement of retired Brigadier General Ofer Winter entering politics.

In a scenario where Winter runs, his party crosses the electoral threshold with 4 seats, causing the Religious Zionism party led by Bezalel Smotrich to fall below the threshold. This reshapes the opposition bloc to 71 seats (60 Zionist and 11 Arab parties), while the coalition shrinks to 49 seats. The seat distribution in this scenario is: Yashar 24, Likud 21, Yachdut (Together) led by Naftali Bennett 16, The Democrats led by Yair Golan 11, Yisrael Beiteinu and Otzma Yehudit 9 each, United Torah Judaism 8, Shas 7, Joint List 7, and Ra'am 4.

Without Winter's entry, Yachdut has 15 seats, The Democrats 11, Yisrael Beiteinu and Otzma Yehudit 9 each, United Torah Judaism 8, Shas 7, Joint List 7, Religious Zionism 4, and Ra'am 4. Smaller parties like the Zionist Home for Reservists (2.9%), Gilad Erdan's The Unity (0.8%), and Benny Gantz's Blue and White (0.4%) remain below the threshold. The overall bloc count stands at 70 seats for anti-Netanyahu parties versus 50 for the coalition.

Regarding prime minister preference, Eisenkot leads Netanyahu with 44% to 34%, while Naftali Bennett leads Netanyahu 39% to 37%. Netanyahu leads Avigdor Lieberman 35% to 28%, with a significant portion of respondents opting for none or undecided in all comparisons.