Former Israeli Deputy Chief Warns Trump Faces Political Risks Over Iran Strategy

Former Israeli Deputy Chief of Staff and National Security Council Deputy Head Uzi Dayan analyzed the current U.S. approach toward Iran, highlighting the political calculations influencing President Donald Trump's decisions. Dayan believes the U.S. is not currently aiming for a decisive victory over Tehran, which could have consequences both militarily and politically. He warned that if Trump fails to significantly weaken Iran, especially in an offensive capacity, he risks political damage in the upcoming midterm elections, with critics accusing him of losing the conflict.

Dayan emphasized the intertwining of the Iran conflict with U.S. domestic politics, noting that prolonged stalemate without clear progress benefits Trump's opponents. He also pointed to the ongoing threat posed by Iran's nuclear and missile programs, contrasting it with Israel's success in halting Syria's nuclear ambitions. According to Dayan, Iran remains a strategic threat not only to Israel but to global security, a reality he claims the U.S. either underestimates or chooses to ignore.

Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, Dayan argued that reopening shipping lanes does not eliminate Iran's ability to threaten the region via coastal missiles. He proposed a broader strategic solution involving a land route from oil-producing countries through Jordan and Israel to Europe. Crucially, Dayan stressed that Israel must maintain independent operational capabilities to act against Iran even if the U.S. decides not to escalate its campaign. He concluded that Israel cannot rely solely on Washington to resolve the Iranian threat and must be prepared to conduct preemptive or retaliatory strikes autonomously.