US Faces Years-Long Shortage of Long-Range Precision Missiles After Iran Conflict

The recent conflict between the United States and Iran has severely depleted the US military's stockpile of long-range precision strike missiles, raising concerns about future readiness. According to reports, the US used a significant portion of its ground-to-ground ATACMS and Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM) during five months of fighting. Armin Papperger, CEO of German defense giant Rheinmetall, warned that replenishing these missile stocks will take much longer than two years, despite a new joint production agreement with Lockheed Martin set to begin next year in Germany.

Former US Navy Commander Eliezer (Chayni) Marom explained that these missiles are critical because they allow the US to strike deep enemy targets without risking aircraft. The ATACMS played a key role in Ukraine, while the newer PrSM, introduced two years ago, offers longer ranges and was first used in the "Harry's Roar" operation. Marom noted that these stand-off missiles are especially vital early in conflicts when enemy air defenses are still active, enabling safer air operations later. However, their high cost and limited stockpiles mean that if fighting resumes with depleted supplies, the US may have to rely more on risky air strikes.

Alternative long-range weapons like Tomahawk cruise missiles, launched from ships and submarines, have also been heavily used, reportedly consuming nearly half of the global US inventory since the Iran conflict began. Additionally, regional political constraints limit US ground launcher deployment, as many Middle Eastern countries are reluctant to allow missile launches from their soil after recent strikes.

Papperger emphasized that expanding production capacity is a complex, multi-year process requiring infrastructure and workforce development, not solvable by funding alone. Marom called for a thorough review of US missile stockpile assumptions, highlighting the strategic challenge posed by potential conflicts with China, especially over Taiwan. He also noted parallels with Israel’s interceptor missile shortages and limited production capabilities, underscoring the broader implications for allied defense planning.

US President Donald Trump downplayed concerns, asserting near-unlimited ammunition supplies despite acknowledging some reductions. The situation underscores the strategic importance of long-range precision missiles and the challenges the US faces in maintaining military readiness amid ongoing and potential future conflicts.