US Faces Missile Shortages While Considering Expanded Strikes on Iran's Nuclear Sites

The United States is confronting a significant depletion in its missile inventory following a 39-day air and defense campaign against Iran, according to a May report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington. This shortage, particularly acute in interceptors like the Patriot and THAAD missile systems, is influencing President Donald Trump's cautious approach to expanding military operations against Iran. The report highlights that some missile stocks used in the conflict will not be replenished to pre-conflict levels until 2029 or even 2030.

THAAD interceptors are the most critically affected, with the US Army requesting 857 additional missiles in its 2027 budget, but deliveries are not expected to begin until mid-2029. Current production rates are about 96 missiles per year, though Lockheed Martin plans to increase this to 400 annually. Patriot missile production, at roughly 650 missiles per year, is split between US needs and foreign allies, complicating rapid replenishment. The US military's demand for 3,203 Patriot missiles in 2027 will not alleviate shortages immediately, with first deliveries anticipated only by May 2029.

The missile shortage is compounded by damage to AN/TPY-2 radars critical for targeting, with only 13 units delivered so far, making losses operationally significant. These supply constraints create a "vulnerability window" if the US faces simultaneous conflicts, such as in the Western Pacific.

Despite these limitations, the Trump administration continues to evaluate potential targets in Iran for a possible large-scale strike. Key targets include the "Mount Picaax" underground tunnel complex near Natanz, believed to house thousands of centrifuges for uranium enrichment relocated after the 2025 conflict. The complex is deeply buried, making complete destruction challenging. Other targets include the Talgan 2 site in the Parchin military complex, linked to high-explosive research for nuclear weapons, which has been damaged by Israeli strikes but is undergoing repairs.

Additional sites such as Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz have suffered damage from previous US and Israeli strikes but show signs of recovery or continued activity. The dilemma facing Trump is balancing the strategic advantage of striking these nuclear-related facilities against the risk of provoking a broad Iranian response that would further deplete already strained missile defenses.