Gadi Eizenkot's 'Yashar!' Leads Poll as Only 18% Believe Netanyahu Will Enforce Full Draft Law

A recent Channel 13 poll shows that if elections were held today, Gadi Eizenkot's party "Yashar!" would lead with 23 seats, surpassing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud at 22 seats. Naftali Bennett's "Yachad" remains steady at 13 seats. The poll also examined public trust in Netanyahu's promise to pass a full military draft law in his next government. Only 18% of respondents believe Netanyahu will fulfill this pledge. Among coalition supporters, 43% trust the promise, with 60% of Likud voters expressing confidence. However, only about a quarter of the ultra-Orthodox public believe the statement, and roughly half doubt Netanyahu will draft yeshiva students.

Regarding handling tensions with Iran, Netanyahu holds a slight advantage over Eizenkot among undecided voters, with 35% favoring Netanyahu and 34% Eizenkot. On the question of who can better unite the nation, 42% chose Eizenkot compared to 22% for Netanyahu. Among coalition party supporters, 75% of Religious Zionist voters see Netanyahu as a unifier, while support is lower among Otzma Yehudit (35%), Shas (41%), and United Torah Judaism (29%).

When asked about the decisive factor in voting, whether Netanyahu staying in office, his removal, or other non-personal considerations, 14% said Netanyahu’s continuation is key, 32% prioritized his replacement, and 48% cited a combination of factors. Among coalition voters, a majority of Likud supporters back Netanyahu’s leadership, but other coalition parties show varied results. For example, 34% of Shas voters and 27% of Religious Zionists prioritize Netanyahu’s continuation, while only 24% of United Torah Judaism and Otzma Yehudit voters do.

Among opposition voters, motivation to replace Netanyahu is strong: 67% of Democratic Party voters and 60% of Eizenkot’s "Yashar!" supporters see this as their main consideration. Similar figures appear among Bennett-Lapid voters (58%), but only 37% of Yisrael Beiteinu supporters share this view. Among undecided voters, 18% see replacing Netanyahu as the main factor, while just 5% prioritize his continuation.

The survey was conducted by HaMidah in collaboration with Stat-Net, HaMidgam Project, and Askaria, with statistical advice from Prof. David Steinberg. It included 961 respondents with a 3.7% margin of error.